Pacers vs Pelicans Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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01 March 2024

Pacers vs Pelicans Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Meeting for the second time in as many days, there's sure to be no love lost between the Pacers and Pelicans. With the Pacers winning and covering the first meeting, our NBA picks expect a similar result as the scene shifts to the Big Easy.

The Indiana Pacers and the New Orleans Pelicans will play the second part of their home-and-home series when they face off at the Smoothie King Center on Friday night.

The Pacers took the first leg of this matchup in Indiana on Wednesday, earning a 123-114 victory as 4-point home favorites. This time around the NBA odds have the Pelicans who are the favorites, with the home on the board as 5-point chalk.

Is there value with Indiana as a road dog after getting the win last time out? Or will New Orleans exact some revenge? I break it all down and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Pacers vs. Pelicans.

Pacers vs Pelicans odds

Pacers vs Pelicans predictions

This is an intriguing matchup for many reasons. For starters, both teams are battling to stay in the Top 6 of their respective conferences and out of the play-in round.

Currently, the Indiana Pacers sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference but are just one game behind the Philadelphia 76ers who are fifth. There are five teams between fourth and eighth within a game and a half of each other.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans own the sixth spot in the West with just three and a half games separating the teams between fifth and 10th.

Second, these teams are trending in different directions at the moment, and the Pacers took advantage of that in Wednesday’s meeting.

The Pacers and their high-octane offense ran out to an early lead, and despite a late push from the Pelicans, didn’t really look back. The win was the Pacers’ seventh in their last 10 games. While the Pels on the other hand, have now dropped three of their last four.

Now, the Pelicans have the edge when it comes to net rating this season, ranking fifth in the NBA compared to the Pacers 12th. New Orleans is obviously the more balanced team but it appeared that keeping up with Indiana was a problem on Wednesday.

The Pacers rank second in the NBA in offensive rating and first in effective field goal percentage and while the Pelicans rank sixth in defensive rating, they didn’t really have an answer for Tyrese Haliburton who dished out 13 assists, and Pascal Siakam who went 11-18 from the floor. The Pacers also let it fly from beyond the arc, going 14-38 from 3-point range. The Pels aren’t built for a track meet.

What I find most interesting about this matchup is the line. Wednesday’s meeting closed with the Pacers as 4-point home favorites. So, you can reasonably assume that Indiana would be a slight favorite on a neutral site. So, why are the Pelicans 5-point home favorites this time around?

That’s a 9-point swing. And no key players are missing from either matchup. Yes, it’s difficult to beat a team twice in a row, and yes, it will be difficult for the Pacer to hit that many threes again, but it’s not out of the question for arguably the best-scoring team in the NBA.

We don’t need the Pacers to win. We just need them to cover — something they have done effectively as underdogs lately, going 8-3-2 in their last 13 games when getting points.

We saw them look like a handful for the Pelicans just two days ago. I'm taking the points with the Pacers.

My best bet: Pacer +5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Pacers vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Pacers +5

Zion Williamson Under 24.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 threes

Zion Williamson’s point total is getting a boost here because he’s facing the Pacers, but I’m not sure it should. His point total is sitting at 24.5, but Williamson is averaging 22.4 points per game this season and has played below this number seven times in his last 10 games. Which includes being held to 23 points in Wednesday’s matchup against Indiana.

The Pelicans are also a funny team when it comes to their 3-point defense. They have the lowest opponent 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA, but they allow the second-most attempts. A team full of shooters like the Pacers can take advantage of that.

So, let’s close this same-game parlay out with Tyrese Haliburton to go Over 2.5 made threes. Haliburton is shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc this season and has s hit three or more threes in five of his last seven games overall, including that last matchup with the Pels.

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Pacers vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

The Pelicans opened this home-and-home rematch as 4.5-point favorites and they have seen the early money with the line moving to New Orleans -5 as of Friday afternoon.

And as I wrote about above, I don’t understand the massive swing. I would expect the Pelicans to be slight favorites on their home court. But five points, when all the same players will be on the court again. That doesn’t add up. Maybe it’s a trap. But I can’t turn down getting those points with the Pacers.

The total hit the board at 238 and has been bet up slightly, currently sitting at 239, which was the closing total of Wednesday’s meeting. That game snuck Under the number landing at 237.

I’m staying away from the total here because the Pelicans should get a bit of a boost at home but like I said, the Pacers seem built to break down this New Orleans defense. So, I can see a wide variance in results here.