Padres vs. Braves Sunday Night Baseball picks: Bet on Acuna to score another run
Two World Series hopefuls in the National League meet at Truist Park for Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres aim for a series win against the Atlanta Braves, who could halve the four-game set with a win tonight. We like the Braves to start strong tonight and for Ronald Acuna Jr. to cross the plate.
MLB odds as of 12:50 p.m. ET on 04/09/23.
Padres vs. Braves picks
Best Bet: Braves F5 moneyline - tie no bet (-117)
So far in this series, the Braves have done it all at the five-inning mark: one win, one tie and one loss.
That technically means they’ve covered in two of three games (although they only cashed once). And we like their chances to cover at the F5 mark once again.
Atlanta sends rookie Dylan Dodd to the mound, and the book isn’t out on the 25-year-old lefty just yet. He tossed five innings of one-run ball in his MLB debut last Tuesday, guiding the Braves to a comfortable win at the F5 mark.
The Padres will send Seth Lugo to the mound, and his results against the Braves haven’t been great. Sure, he’s 3-0 in three starts against Atlanta, with a 1.35 ERA — but none of that work has come in the past five seasons.
Against current Braves hitters, Lugo has allowed a .279 BA and a .525 SLG over 72 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.
The mystique of Dodd plus the mediocrity of Lugo gives us hope that the Braves can tie or lead at the end of five frames.
Key stat: Atlanta is 7-2-1 on the F5 moneyline so far this season.
Quick picks
Acuna over 0.5 runs (-127): We’re paying a bit of a premium to back Acuna on his run prop, but the Braves leadoff man is worth this price.
He’s scored in seven of nine games, totalling 10 runs on the season. Whether he gets on via hit or walk, he’s a threat to move into scoring position thanks to his elite base-stealing ability. Acuna already has four steals this year.
Against Lugo, Acuna is 5-for-10 with a walk.
Bogaerts, Cruz 1+ hits each (-106): We have no precedent for the Padres’ lineup facing Dodd, but we do like our chances backing a pair of hitters who’ve crushed lefty pitching.
Xander Bogaerts is a career .310 hitter against LHPs, and he also has at least one hit in eight of nine games this season.
As for Nelson Cruz, he’s batting .309 vs. southpaws dating back to 2019, and he’s coming off a three-hit game on Friday against the Braves.
