Panthers vs. Bruins Odds, Game 7 Prediction
Panthers vs. Bruins Game 7 Odds
For many, it was an afterthought that the 92-point Florida Panthers would give the historically strong Bruins a challenge in the first round of the playoffs. However, they have done exactly that and earned the opportunity to complete a historic upset with a thrilling 7-5 victory in Game 6.
Not only has this series been surprisingly competitive, but the contests have arguably been the most compelling of any first round matchup. Game 6 was maybe the best game of the postseason, and overall the series has averaged 7.66 goals per game.
Oddsmakers are expecting another fairly high event game by setting a high total at 6.5, which is a rarity for NHL Game 7s.
The Bruins are -215 favorites to avoid what would be a historic 3-1 collapse after the greatest regular season in NHL history.
Florida Panthers
There were numerous reasons why the Panthers are far better than an average wildcard team and could be a scary matchup for Boston compared to the Islanders or Penguins. In all likelihood the actual strength of this team was underrated due to the wealth of elite cup contenders in the East.
The gigantic disparity between starting goaltending options was the greatest reason why it seemed so hard to believe the Panthers could steal this matchup with the Bruins. It was feasible to think that Florida could control play at a surprisingly high level in this matchup, but it seemed unlikely Alex Lyon or Sergei Bobrovsky could duel with Linus Ullmark to pay that off.
Whether they ultimately win or not, it has been a very impressive series for the Panthers. They have played to a 52.03% Expected Goals rating at even strength and are very deserving of a 3-3 tie.
Offensively, the Panthers have done a masterful job creating chaos in front of the goal. They have also excelled at finding holes in the Bruins’ traditionally incredible D-zone coverage.
That was a huge story in Game 6 where the Panthers played to a 15-4 edge in High-danger Chances at even strength.
In a series including 61-goalscorer David Pastrnak and two of best two-way forwards in the league with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, Matthew Tkachuk has been clearly been the most valuable skater. He leads the series with 10 points and five goals.
Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal for the Panthers. He has played to a -0.2 GSAx and .883 save % in four appearances this series.
Boston Bruins
While the Panthers will be very proud to have forced a seventh game, the 135-point Bruins undoubtedly feel disappointed with their play to this point in the series.
The Bruins were a historically dominant defensive team that allowed just 2.15 goals per game this regular season. That strength has gone out the window this series, as they have played to a 2.95 xGA/60 rating and allowed 3.66 goals against per game.
Boston’s worse defensive play has surely been part of Ullmark’s lowly numbers this series after his likely Vezina trophy winning regular season. He has still played to a positive GSAx of +1.6 but owns a save % of just .896 and owns a 3.33 goals against average in the series.
There is some debate about whom the Bruins will go with in goal in this matchup. Jeremy Swayman was tremendous down the stretch this season and could end up getting the opportunity in tonight’s matchup.
Panthers vs. Bruins Pick
The Panthers truly have earned the right to knock off the Bruins in this Game 7. The series have been very hard fought and closely contested.
The Bruins have much more to give in terms of playing a sharper team game — particularly in the defensive zone, where they played maybe their worst game of the season in Game 6. We know in some areas of the game Bruins have another level, but it does seem to be a lot of respect towards their prior history that they are still -235 today.
Without factoring in odds, it is easy to lean towards the Bruins and say they find a way. Yet to back them at pregame considering at the way this series has been contested holds no value to me. I think that looking for potential in-game opportunities to back Boston makes more sense.
Even if it is tied after two periods, you would be able to lock in prices around -200. If the Bruins end up trailing at all, you will find drastically better numbers.
The total looks fairly sharp to me as well. I am not sure if we will see the drastic drop off in terms of total goals we see in many Game 7s, but I do not see the over as the slam dunk it has been all series long in this matchup.
The one angle I am interested in backing is props targeting the Bruins’ top line of Marchand, Bergeron and Debrusk. They have been extremely threatening at times in this series and have a habit of rising to the occasion in the big moments for Boston.
Marchand in particular has had a tremendous series, and I am counting on him showing up with a strong performance tonight.
My favorite props are Marchand to record over 1.5 points at +205 and to record a goal at +180. Jake DeBrusk is priced at -127 to record one point, and I like a bet on that as well. Patrice Bergeron to record one point at -150 is another good look.
By no means would I bet a full unit on each of these props as they are all very correlated, and that means a ton of risk. What I recommend is splitting a little over a full unit on each of the options, or choosing the one which you can get at the best possible number given the sports books at your disposal.
