Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prediction: NHL picks, odds Tuesday

Are the Florida Panthers finally making their move?

After a terrible first half, the reigning Presidents’ Trophy winners have won five of their last seven and now are just four points (with two more games played) behind the Pittsburgh Penguins for the final playoff spot in the NHL‘s Eastern Conference. 

Florida is a road underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night in what is a pretty important contest for both teams. The game will begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prediction (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

While the Panthers are slowly trudging up the standings, the Maple Leafs are starting to trend in the opposite direction. The Buds still have a nine-point gap between them and the playoff cut-line, but they are in danger of losing the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic Division to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Toronto is just 5-4-1 in its last 10 and has just a +1 goal differential in that span. 

Even more concerning for the Leafs than their record is their 5-on-5 play. Normally a dominant possession team, Toronto has an even goal differential at 5-on-5 over its last 10 contests and its shot attempt rate, high-danger scoring chance percentage and expected goal share is down from its season-long average. Throw in some inconsistent goaltending and you have all the ingredients for a bit of a slump.

Toronto’s downward turn isn’t a cause for much concern — the Leafs banked enough points to almost ensure themselves of a playoff spot — but it does make you wonder if Florida is catching Toronto at the right time.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a strong 5-on-5 team that is capable of tilting the ice against any opponent. Florida ranks third in shot share, fourth in expected goals rate, and eighth in high-danger scoring chance rate this season.

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Despite those strong 5-on-5 numbers, Florida has been undone by inconsistency in goal, a lack of depth on defense and an offense that took some time to find its footing after the departure of Jonathan Huberdeau. The goaltenders are still hot and cold, but it does seem that the rest of Florida’s game is heading in the right direction. And the concerns over the form of Spencer Knight (Tuesday’s presumed starter) are mitigated a bit when you consider that Toronto’s goalies have also struggled of late.

The Panthers may be in a tough schedule spot after playing on Monday afternoon, but this is as good a time as any to be taking on the Leafs, who are trending down after ripping through November and December.