Pelicans vs Kings prediction, odds, preview

The Sacramento Kings stayed in town for a second consecutive matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Monday’s head-to-head meeting finished in favor of New Orleans with a 129-93 victory.

It might be a rare scheduling quirk, but this is an opportunity for the Pelicans to climb up the Western Conference standings. The West is a log jam in the middle once again, with the No. 4 seed and the No. 10 seed separated by 2.5 games.

The Pelicans are 7-7 on the year, which currently makes them the No. 9 seed in the conference and in the Play-In Tournament. The Kings, meanwhile, are 8-5 and ranked as the No. 5 seed in the West after being the No. 3 seed in last year’s postseason.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is giving the edge to the Kings — despite Monday's outcome — with an over/under of 237.

Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Time/TV: 7 p.m. CT (Bally Sports)

Point spread (from Caesars): Kings -2

Over/under: 237

Moneyline: Kings -125, Pelicans +105

Analysis: The betting markets didn’t adjust much based on Monday’s matchup. The Pelicans covered as 2-point underdogs in that game, with the total finishing below the closing mark of 237.5.

For the season, New Orleans has an 8-5-1 overall record against the spread and is 7-7 on point totals. Sacramento is 8-5 ATS and 7-6 to the under. The Kings are just 1-3 against the spread after a loss this year but were an impressive 23-14 (62.2%) ATS coming off a defeat during their magical run last season.

While there is an argument to back the Kings in a bounce-back spot via the spread or moneyline, the better angle is in the player props market. After a low-scoring game, we are seeing some better value in this market between the same two teams in the same arena.

In this case, Kings guard De’Aaron Fox’s assists prop really stands out. He has an over/under of 5.5, with a -133 price to pay for six-plus assists. With a projection of 7.1 assists in this game, there is a 21% edge on this current over at Caesars Sportsbook.

Fox didn’t record a single assist in 29 minutes on Monday, but he has cleared this mark in five of his eight regular-season games this season. Fox is averaging 11.9 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com, and is capable of clearing this prop by a good margin on any given night.

Best bet: Over 5.5 assists for De’Aaron Fox (-133 via Caesars)