Penn State football bowl game projection: 2 things ruin New Year's Six

Want to see Penn State football in the biggest bowl game possible?

Then root for the favorites Saturday during conference championship weekend. Root for the status quo to prevail − meaning Texas beating Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title and Michigan beating Iowa to win the Big Ten.

As long as that happens, Penn State should qualify for one of three New Year's Six games − the tier of bowls directly under the four-team College Football Playoff.

The CFP committee will all but confirm that situation Tuesday evening, if they expectedly move the Nittany Lions to No. 10 in the final rankings − keeping them ahead of fellow two-loss teams Ole Miss and Oklahoma. Playoff teams and bowl pairings will be announced Sunday afternoon.

If that ranking falls into place, the Lions are in prime position to secure a bid to the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta bowls as one of the "top" 12 teams available. That would guarantee a postseason game in a glitzy NFL stadium with as much postseason tradition and prestige as possible.

It would provide the opportunity for intriguing, big-name match-ups against Alabama, Texas, Washington or Oregon − potentially even current No. 1 Georgia. They also could be paired with the mandatory Group of 5 representative. which is currently Tulane.

And a New Year's Six destination and opponent almost certainly would provide more incentive for Penn State's NFL Draft-worthy stars to play at least some role in the game − rather than relive the opt-out exodus for the Outback Bowl a couple of years ago.

Know this, at least: The results of conference championship games on Friday and Saturday mostly won't affect whether the idle, 10-2 Lions qualify for the Peach, Cotton or Fiesta.

Next for PSU in 2024:

Except for in two instances.

The spoilers could be lower-ranked Iowa (No. 17) and Oklahoma State (No. 20). Each earns an automatic New Year's Six bid if it pulls the upset this weekend − knocking Penn State down to the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. The Lions would play an SEC team in that New Year's Day game, presumably Ole Miss.

That doesn't appear likely, at least according to betting lines: No. 2 Michigan is a 23-point favorite over Iowa Saturday night in Indianapolis; Texas is a 14-point favorite over the Cowboys earlier that day in Arlington, Texas.

If those favorites hold, the Lions should secure their fifth New Year's Six bowl in the past eight seasons under head coach James Franklin.

Penn State football: New Year's Six congestion, confusion

This 10th and final bowl season in the four-team playoff structure is the most congested and difficult to predict, at least in terms of matchups.

There are still four undefeated teams in the playoff hunt heading into the weekend, three of them facing huge challenges: Georgia vs. one-loss Alabama; Washington vs. one-loss Oregon and Florida State (without its injured star quarterback) playing two-loss Louisville.

Those games won't impact Penn State's entry into New Year's Six, just its site and opponent. It could potentially play college football bluebloods Alabama, Georgia or Texas, if those teams do not make the playoff.

Only the New Year's Six Orange Bowl seems unlikely for the Lions because of its strict tie-ins. It must match the highest-ranked non-playoff team among the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame against an ACC representative (non-playoff Florida State or Louisville/N.C. State).

Frank Bodani covers Penn State football for the York Daily Record and USA Today Network. Contact him at [email protected] and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @YDRPennState.