Penn State moves into top 10 of CFP rankings ahead of showdown with Michigan
Penn State is in the top 10 of the latest College Football Playoff committee rankings. Nothing particularly matters, though, until the Nittany Lions take the field on Saturday against Michigan.
The No. 10 Lions host the No. 3 Wolverines at Beaver Stadium in one of the country’s biggest games of the season. If Penn State wins, then suddenly the rankings become far more important to the Lions.
As it is, Penn State sits near the back of the pack of one-loss teams in the standings — which were released Tuesday night — behind Oregon, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss. The Lions jumped up one spot from last week’s inaugural rankings thanks to a loss by Oklahoma.
For now, the issue for the Lions is a lack of a signature win. Though their case will be helped if Iowa can limp to the finish line as Big Ten West champion — the injury-ravaged Hawkeyes are back in the CFP rankings this week at No. 22.
Pulling off an upset of Michigan and ending the Wolverines’ 20-game Big Ten win streak would solve the problem.
Beating Michigan and winning out wouldn’t guarantee the Lions a spot in the playoff. No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Washington are all capable of finishing undefeated and edging an 11-1 Penn State team. There are several other scenarios that could keep the Lions out as well.
Penn State’s most likely path to the playoff would be winning out and having Michigan knock off Ohio State on Thanksgiving weekend, creating a three-way tie between the Big Ten East leaders.
The tiebreaker would likely come down to combined conference records of each team’s opponents from the West Division. That’s a race that the Lions narrowly lead as Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois are a combined 8-10 in Big Ten play. West opponents for Ohio State (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue) and Michigan (Nebraska, Minnesota, Purdue) are both 7-11.
ESPN’s “Playoff Predictor” gives Penn State a 21% chance of reaching the playoff, which features semifinals in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl this season. That puts the Lions as the ninth most likely team to claim one of the four spots.
Vegas oddsmakers also have Penn State with the ninth-best chance to qualify, but at plus-900, a steep drop from the team with the eighth most likely odds, Alabama, at plus-250.
It wouldn’t be unprecedented for a team to jump from No. 10 into the top four this late in the season. Three teams ranked No. 10 or lower after the second set of CFP rankings have made the playoff — 2015 Michigan State (No. 13), 2015 Oklahoma (No. 12) and 2019 Oklahoma (No. 10).
But it all comes down to finding a way to beat Michigan, a year after the Wolverines put a 41-17 beating on the Lions last October in Ann Arbor.
To do that, the Lions realize they need a much better showing on offense than what they got against Ohio State two weeks ago.
“Yeah, I think that’s fair,” coach James Franklin said Monday at his weekly press conference. “You’re playing the No. 1, No. 2, No. 3 defense in the country, and they’re ranked that for a reason. … So yes, there’s no doubt about it that in these types of games we have to show that we can manufacture yards and points against whoever we’re playing.
“But I think there is a way to do that, and I also think as a coaching staff we have to be patient and we’ve got to capitalize when those moments come. Because there’s about four to six moments or plays a game in these types of games that you got to capitalize on them. And we need to capitalize.”
