Penn State season record staff predictions: How will the Lions fare in 2023?

Penn State football is the No. 7 team in the nation, according to the Associated Press top 25 and the USA Today Coaches Poll. It is the highest preseason slot for the Lions since 2020, when they were also No. 7. Taking the shortened and irregular COVID year out of play, it is the highest since 2017, when head coach James Franklin’s team started at No. 6 and finished at No. 8.

Las Vegas oddsmakers have set the Big Ten East team’s win total at 9.5. For those unaware, that means anyone takin the over needs Penn State to win 10 games or more. Anyone on the under must see the Lions go 9-3 or worse. Which side does the Blue-White Illustrated staff fall on? Our staff picks are in.

Bauer: This is the year Penn State beats either Michigan or Ohio State

Admittedly, the easy pick is 10-2. Call it instinct, but the easiest blueprint for Penn State’s 2023 season isn’t the one I believe will come to fruition this year.

The question is which alternative seems most likely as the Nittany Lions and head coach James Franklin vie for a College Football Playoff berth before its expansion.

In many ways, 2016’s success was the product of a program that found its stride ahead of schedule after two early-season setbacks. Seeing some similarities between this team and that one, but without the same challenges on the schedule in September, I’m taking the bullish option.

Illinois and Iowa will both be challenging tests for Penn State’s budding offense to overcome, but they shouldn’t derail a meeting between two likely unbeaten teams at Ohio State on Oct. 21. Whether the Nittany Lions can clear that game, or Michigan three weeks later, is the unknown that’s difficult to decipher. Yet, given a six-game lead-in to hit its stride, this is the year that Penn State wins one of them.

Prediction: 11-1

Fitz: Back the Lions to split their two biggest games

There are still plenty of questions to answer for the Nittany Lions heading into preseason camp, but this group is as stacked with talent as they’ve been since 2017. Of course, all eyes will be on the first-year starter at quarterback, but the roster from top to bottom is something that can help that situation. 

There’s been so much talk this offseason about Drew Allar and the offense that the defense has almost been taken for granted. When the handwringing on that side of the ball comes from a defensive tackle position that’s actually OK, that’s a sign that coordinator Manny Diaz has something to work with. 

The defense and running game, anchored by two really good backs and an experienced offensive line, should get Penn State through September while Allar gets his feet wet. From there, a trip to Columbus and a home matchup against Michigan will tell the tale of the 2023 season. I think the Nittany Lions split them for the first time since 2020.

Prediction: 11-1

Carr: Penn State will force its way into the CFP conversation

There’s a reasonable chance that Penn State comes out of the first month of the 2023 season with a loss. The Nittany Lions will face one of the nation’s best defensive lines at Illinois on Sept. 16, then return home to take on another stingy defensive team, Iowa, the following week. Both opponents are offensively challenged but can even the odds against the PSU’s stacked running game. Sophomore quarterback Drew Allar may struggle early on as the starter, and those games pose some risks.

Yet the team’s overall talent level is the best it’s been in years. If the Lions go 10-2 again but beat Michigan at home, is that progress? That’s a reasonable outcome for this group, but this is the season of optimism. So, I’m predicting that Penn State gets over the hump and beats Michigan at home, forcing its way into the College Football Playoff conversation.

Prediction: 11-1

Herb: Lions’ past equals cause for pause in 2023

In Athlon’s season preview magazine, an anonymous Big Ten assistant coach described Penn State as “always talented but not always tough. When recruiting is clicking, their roster looks close to Michigan or Ohio State, but they don’t punch you back the same way those guys do.”

That’s a fair assessment. The Nittany Lions have had fourth-quarter leads in three of their past six games against the Buckeyes yet have lost them all. They had a fourth-quarter lead on Michigan the last time the Wolverines visited Beaver Stadium and lost that game, too. When it was time to punch back, those opponents kept their cool and landed haymakers. 

To get where it wants to go this season, PSU will have to turn the tables. It must show the physical and mental toughness to make big plays in high-pressure situations at the end of hard-fought games. The Lions don’t necessarily have to win in Columbus, which is fortunate, because they haven’t done it in 12 years. But they must earn a split against Ohio State and Michigan and avoid any upsets along the way if they hope to reach the playoff.

I do think PSU has the manpower to take another next step forward. But my expectations are tempered by the knowledge that the Lions have struggled when they’ve been on the brink of playoff contention.

Prediction: 10-2

How quickly things have changed. At this time last year, Penn State was coming off back-to-back seasons that saw them lose more games in the Big Ten than they won. Sure, most expected them to improve last year, but 11 wins and a victory in the Rose Bowl wasn’t at all what I expected in 2022.

Fast forward to now, and expectations are as high as they’ve been since 2017. The excitement surrounding former five-star quarterback Drew Allar is a major reason why, but it’s the surrounding players who should make the Nittany Lions a real threat to win their first Big Ten title since 2016.

As is the case every year, it all comes down to two games. I don’t see Penn State beating both Michigan and Ohio State, but if the Nittany Lions are ever going to get a result against one of those schools, this should be the year.

In our preseason magazine, I predicted 10-2, writing that Penn State will beat Michigan at home but will still struggle to beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. I also wrote that I think they’ll trip up and lose a game they shouldn’t.

However, after learning more about how the team has progressed throughout camp, I feel more confident now that the Lions will reach 11 regular season wins. Whether they make the College Football Playoff or not is hard to say, but I do think Penn State will be one of those bubble teams coming down the stretch.

Prediction: 11-1

Pickel: Seeing is believing when it comes to the Lions in the CFP

Penn State enters the 2023 season deserving of its top-10 status by all media polls and data-driven rankings and is knocking on the door of a consensus top-five spot before the first kickoff of the year.

I have an extremely hard time envisioning James Franklin’s team losing more than two games in what will be his 10th season as the leader of the Nittany Lions. The question simply becomes, then, whether or not they will drop both contests against their toughest opponents, split them, or leave each victorious. 

I will need to see to believe that Penn State can win in Columbus, and so I mark the matchup with the Buckeyes as a loss. Then, while the Michigan game is at home, Jim Harbaugh’s team looks like the real deal, and I want to see more of what Penn State will have at receiver, right tackle, and on special teams before predicting a win there. 

Thus, I have the Lions as 10-2 team in the regular season, but won’t be surprised if they end up being 11-1 or better.