PGA DFS Picks- Round 4 Showdown for 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The leaderboard is absolutely loaded and Kurt Kitayama finds himself at the top of the leaderboard after getting off to a slow start knocking a drive out of bounds on a Par 5. He has Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, and a host of other really skillful golfers behind him, looking to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model that is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership

Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?

Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.

Round 3 Ownership Analysis

Round 3 DraftKings Points

Round 3 Highest Ownership:

Round 4 Power Rankings

The Power Rankings for Round 4:

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$10,000+

Rory McIlroy is sitting a few shots off the lead and is looking like he is gaining some momentum. If he can continue to play the golf we have seen from him the last two rounds, Rory could land up winning this event tomorrow if a few of the guys ahead of him stumble a little. Rory has an incredible R4 scoring average and if we see that tomorrow he is going to make a lot of birdies. Jon Rahm is sitting out of contention but just three rounds ago he shot -7 and looked unbeatable. He may not win tomorrow, but he could have the round of the day at ownership close to single digits.

$9,000+

Tony Finau has a really impressive R4 scoring average and can make a lot of birdies if things go his way. He is someone who is capable of the round of the day and sits in T12. If we get a ceiling performance from Finau he may land up snooping around the top of the leaderboard. Max Homa seems like a race car that is just waiting to get out on the open round and hit the top end speed that he was designed to achieve. After opening the round today birdie, birdie, par, eagle, he could have broken the slate, but his putter, which has been the best in the business lately, has let him down. IF it arrives tomorrow, Homa will be somebody we have to be behind.

$8,000+

Keith Mitchell and Tommy Fleetwood have some of the best R4 scoring averages in the $8k range. Tommy is all the way down in T52, but if he can get out early in the morning, take advantage of the soft conditions, he will be hardly owned and hopefully a major leverage piece in our player pool. Jordan Spieth will be one the chalkier players we roll with, as he sits in T7 four shots off the lead. We have not yet seen the putter explode, while his ball striking has been rather flat on approach which we know he can be magical at when in the zone. Keegan Bradley and Sungjae Im will be two more golfers we roster in the $8k range. Both have great course history here and can go very low on any given day.

$7,000+

Tom Kim is somebody who has been struggling lately, but going off early, he could take advantage of the softer conditions and do some damage in the $7k range if his putter shows up. Taylor Montgomery went very low in R2 and then stalled today. If Monty can get that putter cooking like he did in R2, he is an elite birdie maker. Thomas Detry, Emiliano Grillo, and Ben Taylor will be the three other $7k golfers we will look to bolster our player pool with.

$6,000+

David Lipsky, Aaron Baddeley, and Matthew NeSmith will be our budget ballers who should free up some salary for us priced in the $6k range. Lipsky has a really impressive R4 scoring average for somebody at this price and sits in T19 which could be close high enough up the leaderboard to potentially sneak into the top-5 by end of day if he has a crazy round. Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!

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