Phillies-Braves NLDS Game 1 Preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis
Here’s the thing about interdivisional matchups: They have strong, strong potential for nonsense. The Braves and Phillies played only 13 games this season, down from the 19 games they used to play every season, but they know each other. Oh, how they know each other. That knowledge will lead to nonsense. All knowledge leads to nonsense. Hey, put that on a throw pillow, and I’ll set up an Etsy account.
I don’t want to speak for the Braves, but they’d rather face the Brewers right now. They might even prefer to face the Dodgers in a best-of-five series instead of the Phillies. Intra-divisional nonsense is what lies under the bed of the best teams at night.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are thinking they have a chance, but they’re also looking at the Braves’ lineup and saying, “Good gravy, that is one talented lineup. We should probably try to stop them from hitting dingers.” They’re not as concerned with nonsense. They’re thinking about baseball stuff because the Braves are an all-time collection of mashers.
Also, you’d better believe that I’m going to repurpose this intro for the Dodgers-Diamondbacks series. It’s basically the same (very fun) thing.
NLDS Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Start time: 6:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Ranger Suárez vs. Spencer Strider
Game 1 pitching matchup
Phillies: LHP Ranger Suárez
>2023 stats: 4-6, 4.18 ERA, 125 innings, 119 strikeouts, 1.42 WHIP
Suárez made 22 starts for the Phillies this season, yet he picked up just four wins. He was fairly effective at preventing runs, so what gives? Other than pitcher wins being a silly, untrustworthy stat, that is?
Nothing. It’s just the modern game, combined with short hooks and low run support. Suárez is better than the record (and probably the ERA) suggests. He’s here to prevent big damage and hope the Phillies lineup behind him scores enough runs to win. He’s a model of consistency, throwing six or seven innings every time, albeit with the occasional crooked number in the box score.
2023 stats: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 186 2/3 innings, 281 strikeouts, 1.09 WHIP
That’s 32 points of ERA separating Suárez from Strider, along with a metric ton of strikeouts and baserunners. This is a mismatch in reputation, but it’s a lot closer when you look at what both pitchers have actually done this year in terms of run prevention.
Of course, Strider led the league in FIP, which suggests that he’s been at least a little unlucky, and you know which team is more concerned about the starter they’re facing. There are at least four Braves hitters who can hit home runs off Suárez using nothing but telepathy. The Phillies can (and have) hit Strider before.
The only question is if they’ll do it now, in Atlanta, off one of the most incredible talents in the game today.
Game 1 X-factor
Ranger Suárez keeping the ball down
Suárez is pretty good at preventing home runs. He’s not elite, but he’s on the side of the spectrum that pitchers want to be on.
The Braves are pretty good at hitting home runs. Let’s see: according to my notes, they’ve literally hit as many home runs in a single season as any other team in baseball history.
It’s an unstoppable force/immovable object situation, except it’s more like the Braves are the unstoppable force and the Phillies are ever-so-slightly movable franchise, especially if they get their hips in there.
Notable Quotable
“(Ronald Acuña Jr.’s) probably the one guy that’s coming through his skin right now to get this thing started, because I talked to him, now you’re going to get that opportunity because he’s whole and he’s healthy.”
—Braves manager Brian Snitker, talking about Acuña not being a part of the Braves’ championship team in 2021.
(Top photo of Bryson Stott: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
