Phillies-Braves NLDS Game 2 Preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis

The Braves are built for thumping. They can pitch, and they can run, but they were historically good at hitting baseballs in the regular season. So it was an absolute nightmare for them to come up empty against the Phillies in a Ranger Suárez and Friends game in Atlanta. Not only does that set up a Game 2 where they have to face Zack Wheeler, who could mow through the 1927 Yankees*, but it gives the Phillies two potential home games out of the four possible remaining games, and nobody wants to play in Citizens Bank Park right now. That’s the city where they have to grease the lampposts when their teams win. No thanks.

I’m not sure I believe in momentum, but the Phillies have it. Earl Weaver famously said, “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher,” which might be a top-10 quote when it comes to understanding the sport of baseball. So no pressure, Max Fried, but don’t mess this up.

* I mean, they’re all dead now. But still.

NLDS Game 2: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Start time: 6:07 p.m. ET on TBS

Pitching matchup: Zach Wheeler vs. Max Fried

Game 2 pitching matchup

Phillies: RHP Zach Wheeler
2023 stats: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 192 innings, 212 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP

Wheeler is throwing harder (and more effectively) now than he was all season, which is a real “ruh-roh” moment for the teams that have to face the Phillies. Whereas other teams have starting pitchers with the gas light on, Wheeler has been getting progressively better. This is a big deal because he’s one of the few horses left in the postseason, a guy whose best-case scenario is eight or nine innings, and not six or seven like the typical starter today.

Of course, we’re not even a month removed from a start in which Wheeler allowed six runs and three home runs in five innings, so it’s not as if the Braves will be helpless. They just can’t miss on the rare pitches that float over the middle of the plate.

Braves: LHP Max Fried
2023 stats: 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 77 2/3 innings, 80 strikeouts, 1.13 WHIP

Since Fried came into the league in 2017, the Braves are 86-36 in his starts. That is, of course, absurd. Win-loss record doesn’t tell you much about an individual pitcher when it’s stripped of team context, but it can tell you an awful lot about the combination of a team and pitcher. When Fried pitches, the Braves win 70 percent of the time, which isn’t much different than the 2001 Mariners or 1998 Yankees. When he pitches, the Braves are akin to an all-time juggernaut.

He didn’t pitch a whole lot this year, just 14 starts, because of a combination of hamstring, arm and blister issues. It’s that last one that had Fried on the IL at the end of the regular season, and it’s not not a concern, but he was quick to point out that he’s dealt with blister issues on and off for a lot of his career, and he’s somewhat used to it. He’s pitching, which generally means the Braves are one of the best teams in baseball, which they’d also be if a 49-year-old Russ Ortíz was starting. But Fried makes them even better.

Game 2 X-factor

Max Fried’s finger

This is the x-factor less because of how he’ll pitch — if he’s in, he’s likely to be effective — but more because of how much it would help the Braves for the rest of the series if he could go six or seven innings. It’s not as if the Braves don’t have anyone who can give them bulk innings out of the bullpen. AJ Smith-Shawver is on the roster as a fourth starter for a series that technically requires only three, so he could be an emergency option early if the blister gives Fried serious problems early. But they’d like to keep Smith-Shawver as a potential Game 3 starter, or at least someone who can be an emergency option behind Bryce Elder.

If Fried can give the Braves some innings, not only does that likely mean he’s effective and preventing runs, but it gives manager Brian Snitker options for the rest of the series.

Notable Quotable

“I thought Ranger threw the ball really well, but I think we have a really good bullpen down there also. Anytime Coach makes a decision, it’s for the best of our team, best situation for our team. So bringing in (Jeff Hoffman) right there was a great decision on his part in that situation, and it worked out.”

– Bryce Harper about a Phillies bullpen that can lock it down in the postseason, which is something that we’re all still getting used to.

(Top photo of Fried: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)