Phillies-Braves NLDS Game 4 Preview: Pitching matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis
Do you believe in the power of the 10th man in the lineup? That tens of thousands of people, screaming and causing audible mayhem, are enough to tip the scales in a baseball game that is typically decided by on-field talent?
Or do you believe that jerks like me make too much of this aspect of the game? That you can’t make the majors if you haven’t dealt with the filthy, personal heckling from the drunkest Modesto Nuts fan out of 948 paying attendees, which means that Phillies fans are a piece of cake in comparison?
You’re not getting an answer out of me. I’m an agnostic on this stuff. But it’ll inform how you see Game 4. Either the Braves melt into a puddle of goo, or they’ll approach this game like they do every other, with professionalism and resolve, and their trust in the roster’s inherent talent will lead to good things.
Good luck to everyone involved, and I’m glad that I don’t have an emotional attachment to either team.
NLDS Game 4: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Start time: 8:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Pitching matchup: Ranger Suárez vs. Spencer Strider
Game 4 pitching matchup
Phillies: LHP Ranger Suárez
2023 stats: 4-6, 4.18 ERA, 125 innings, 119 strikeouts, 1.42 WHIP
The good news: Suárez was tremendous against the Braves in Game 1. He allowed just two baserunners in 3 2/3 innings, striking out four.
The semi-interesting-not-necessarily-bad-but-worth-considering-news: Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled a bit of a rope-a-dope on Suárez, knowing that he wasn’t going much longer than a single turn through the lineup, and everyone else on the team was in on the plan except Suárez. It worked, but it sure seems like a weird dynamic going into his second start of the series. Does he let it fly, knowing that he’s not expected to throw 100 pitches or six innings? Or does he conserve like starters typically do?
I’m assuming that Thomson has discussed this with Suárez ahead of time, and that the bowl of Surprise, All Relievers! was a one-time ruse. At the very least, the effectiveness of the left-hander in Game 1 augurs well for a possible clincher.
2023 stats: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 186 2/3 innings, 281 strikeouts, 1.09 WHIP
It’s who the Braves would choose in a possible elimination game, right? Here’s the tight-pantsed, mustachioed dynamo, with a slider of the gods and a fastball to match. We talk about the Phillies crowd as if it’s an immutable force, but here’s a possible muter. Sometimes it doesn’t matter how loud the crowd is screaming, so long as you have a slider of the gods and a fastball to match. The number one rule of baseball is that the pitcher has the advantage if his stuff and command are good enough.
Here’s a guy.
There’s a bit of a wrinkle, though, as Strider allows more balls in the air than the typical starting pitcher. Among qualified starters, he ranked 41 out of 44 when it came to ground-ball rate this season. It’s possible to be effective doing that, especially when you strike out 28 batters per game, give or take, but the Phillies are a team of himbos that looks to launch balls into the air as hard and far as possible. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad matchup, but it certainly is an interesting matchup.
Game 4 X-factor
The Phillies bullpen
When Thomson went out to get Suárez in Game 1, you could tell the lefty was disappointed. He was rolling, and it was a fielder’s choice that knocked him out of the game, which is never fair. But it worked. Jeff Hoffman came in and thrived, which is something that he’s done for most of the year.
In Game 2, Hoffman came in and hit a guy before allowing a long, towering, game-deciding home run. Relievers contain multitudes. He has two decisions out of the three NLDS games.
This is the duality of the bullpen. And if the plan is to keep Suárez on a short leash, there’s some inherent variability to consider. If it’s a close game and Suárez is rolling again, do you put that full faith in the bullpen? Or do you ride the hot hand until the at-bats start looking more comfortable?
Again, I’m an agnostic. Relievers are typically more effective than starters if you zoom out to 30,000 feet, and the Phillies’ relievers have been generally reliable this season. But this is their non-Wheeler, non-Nola game. There are risks involved.
Notable Quotable
[stares hot death as he rounds second base]
– Bryce Harper
(Top photo of Harper: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
