Phillies vs. Braves prediction, preview, odds: Friday, 5/26

Atlanta stole Game 1 of this NL East divisional series on Thursday, but I think Philadelphia can bounce back, which headlines our Phillies vs. Braves prediction, preview and odds for Friday’s game.

Odds via FanDuel, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction

Neither starting pitcher impresses me. However, I have to give a slight advantage to Phillies’ starter Taijuan Walker in this matchup.

Walker boasts a 5.79 ERA but an expected ERA in the mid-4.00s. He has a decent batted-ball profile but desperately needs to cut down on the walks. For what it’s worth, he’s done better in the latter department over the past few starts.

Meanwhile, Jared Shuster is having a rough time adjusting to the big-league level. He doesn’t have the stuff to compete here, with a 91mph fastball and a low-spinning slider that doesn’t force enough chase.

Stuff+ is a metric that attempts to measure the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics, with 100 being the league average. Shuster has a 62 Stuff+ on the fastball and 74 on the slider, making it two of the worst pitches in the Show.

Of course, Shuster’s best offering is his changeup. Unfortunately, the Stuff+ on that is 63, and he has a +2 Run Value on the pitch (negative is better).

The key to Shuster is keeping his command under him. But that hasn’t been happening either, as he’s walking over 14% of batters during his first four MLB starts, and this is after he walked 13% of batters in his five Triple-A starts this season.

Shuster looks like fade material to me, even against Walker.

Meanwhile, I much prefer the Phillies bullpen in today’s matchup. Not only have the Phillies been better than the Braves by an expected FIP perspective over the past month, but the Braves bullpen has been heavily used over the past few days.

There’s no doubt that the Braves have a better lineup than the Phillies, but the Braves are slumping a bit. Atlanta has a .723 OPS and 90 wRC+ over the past week, both well below-average marks.

And either way, that lineup “advantage” isn’t enough to compensate for Atlanta’s pitching deficiencies in today’s game, and it’s definitely not enough to make the Braves a considerable favorite.

I’d make the Phillies closer to (+120) underdogs today, so the value is on the Phils at (+130).

Phillies vs. Braves Pick

1. Moneyline: Phillies (+130) vs. Braves (-154)

2. Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-138) vs. Braves -1.5 (+115)

3. Total: Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110)

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