Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction, odds: Dodgers injured lineup opens value on underdog Phillies

It’s not the start either team wanted, as our Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction comes with both teams sitting at 15-13 after the season’s first month.

The Phillies’ offense struggled in the early going, and their rotation has been mediocre. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are dealing with injuries, paternity leave and other personnel issues.

While both teams have heated up over the past week, the road dog shows more promise on Monday.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Phillies vs. Dodgers Prediction: Pick

1. Phillies ML (+142) | Play to (+140)

Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction + best bet

It’s tough to dissect the starting pitching matchups.

Phillies starter Taijuan Walker has been average to start the season (0.2 FanGraphs WAR), and it’s impossible to know if he’s 100% after being pulled early in his last start.

However, Dodgers’ starter Tony Gonsolin returned from injury five days ago and was limited to 65 pitches across 3⅓ innings against the Pirates. He allowed no runs but threw far too many balls (39 strikes, 26 balls, three walks) and his fastball velocity was significantly down (91.8 mph).

I’m unsure if Gonsolin will be on a pitch count again on Monday, but it seems clear he’s not stretched out yet.

Meanwhile, the Phillies and the Dodgers have been smashing right-handed pitching, as both rank among the top-10 teams in team OPS and wRC+ against the side.

Ultimately, I consider the first five frames a wash.

But, after that, the Phillies have a considerable advantage.

First, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been superb. The Phillies boast the best reliever ERA (0.89) and FIP (1.75) of any team over the past two weeks, with prime-time closer Jose Alvarado leading the way.

And, perhaps more importantly, the Phillies rested their key bullpen pieces over the weekend. They avoided using Alvarado and Craig Kimbrel on Saturday and Sunday, while Seranthony Dominguez tossed only 21 pitches on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen was more taxed in their weekend series against St. Louis, with Brusdar Graterol pitching in all three games (albeit only 15 pitches) while Evan Phillips and Caleb Ferguson each appeared twice.

The Dodgers are also missing some key bullpen pieces due to injury, including Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes and JP Feyereisen. This bullpen is shorthanded and heavily taxed.

And in the lineup, JD Martinez and Miguel Rojas are fighting ailments, keeping them out for the short term.

The Dodgers are still very hurt, and you want to fade them before they get healthy (especially when they’re big favorites). And sure, the Phillies are still missing Bryce Harper (returning Tuesday), but they are the healthier team in this series.

I also give the defensive advantage to the Phillies, who grade out as the better fielding team by Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs’ Def metric.

The Phillies have won seven of their past nine games and have some key advantages over the Dodgers on Monday. Ultimately, I’m unsure why Philadelphia is such a big underdog.

So, I’ll take advantage by playing the Phils ML at (+140) or better.

1. Moneyline: Phillies (+142) vs. Dodgers (-168)

2. Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-146) vs. Dodgers -1.5 (+122)

3. Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-122)

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