Phillies vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

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20 May 2023

Phillies vs Giants Prediction, Picks, Odds

The best way to explain Philadelphia's season in one word would be rollercoaster, with the team seemingly stuck in mediocrity. However, with a familiar face throwing for the Giants, our MLB betting picks expect the Phillies' offense to heat up.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants are slipping in a big way, having lost three in a row and six of their last eight. Alex Wood will take the mound tonight looking to not only snap the Giants' losing streak, but also looking to pick up his first win. He will do so in the opening game of a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies, who had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday.

Can San Francisco help Alex Wood secure his first win of the season or will the Phillies contribute to the host's losing ways?

Phillies vs Giants odds

Phillies vs Giants predictions

To put it quite simply, the Philadelphia Phillies' season has been full of ups and downs. After a worrying 5-10 start, Philadelphia proceeded to go 10-3 in its next 13, then immediately followed that up with a six-game skid... which was then followed by a five-game winning streak. Catch all that?

The San Francisco Giants will have Alex Wood on the mound tonight to help get things going, but how long he'll go remains up in the air. He returned just three days ago after a month-long absence and allowed three hits and a walk in his one inning of work. On the season, he has accrued a 2.45 ERA in his 11 innings of work across four appearances.

However, tonight's task may be tall for Wood given how well this Philly roster has hit Wood in the past. Across 100 combined plate appearances he has allowed a .341 batting average and has posted a 13.0% strikeout rate that is well under his career 22.7% rate.

The most notable performers against Wood include Bryce Harper (.375 BA), Josh Harrison (.333 BA), Trea Turner (.316 BA, .684 SLG), and J.T. Realmuto (.300 BA) with the four combining for 86 plate appearances.

I think the Phillies will get to Wood early and will keep their bats hot against a sliding San Fran side. Give me Philadelphia straight up.

My best bet: Phillies moneyline (+100 at DraftKings)

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Phillies vs Giants moneyline analysis

On the other side, Connor Brogdon (2-0, 2.61 ERA) will serve as the opener before handing things off to Bailey Falter (0-6, 5.75 ERA). Brogdon has appeared in 18 games this season and has allowed a run in just four of those appearances, never allowing more than two runs in any of those outings.

Bailey Falter, on the other hand, has had extensive struggles this year. Since his second appearance of the season, he has increased his ERA in each outing. That includes his last appearance in which he allowed five earned in 3 2/3 innings of work.

The hope is that the Phillies can get after Alex Wood early and often (as they have in the past) while Brogdon puts down a good two innings before Falter comes in. That is an entirely realistic expectation given that the Giants have ranked 20th in team wRC+ in the last two weeks during these trying times.

Phillies vs Giants Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 8.5 juiced towards the Under, which has since moved to a 9.0.

The Phillies have played 22-17-1 to the Under this year — the sixth-highest rate of Unders on the season at 56.4% — including playing that way in four straight games heading into Monday night. Meanwhile, San Francisco has played 20-19-1 to the Under this year, but has gone 12-7-1 to the Over in games with a total of 8.5 or more.

The Giants have only scored three runs combined in the last two games, but prior to that they had averaged 5.25 runs in the previous four. They may not get to Brogdon early, but Falter taking over will give San Francisco ample opportunity to get a few across the plate.

Tonight's weather features humidity levels (84-86%) that heavily favor the Over traditionally. The temperate (low 60s) and wind (9 mph out to center) are negligible in comparison.

Phillies vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Connor Brogdon (2-0, 2.61 ERA): Brogdon has been a reliable arm for the Phillies this season, and will serve as tonight's opener. In 18 appearances this year he has gone scoreless in 14 of them, and has only allowed multiple runs in two of those appearances. He last appeared two days ago in two innings of relief en route to a 7-4 win over the Rockies.

Alex Wood (0-0, 2.45 ERA): The 32-year-old lefty recently returned from injury (May 12) but was only able to put one inning of work together after allowing three hits, a walk, and one earned run. Prior to his injury and subsequent return, he had pitched to a 1.80 ERA.