Phillies vs. White Sox odds, prediction: the first five bet to make

We have Phillies vs. White Sox odds and predictions as the 7-11 Phils meet the 7-11 Sox in the series rubber match.

The two split a doubleheader on Tuesday and now look to the back of their respective rotations for a series win.

And I feel much better about one starter than the other.

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Phillies (-115) vs. White Sox (-105)

Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+145) vs. White Sox +1.5 (-175)

Total: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

Phillies F5 ML (-120) | Play to (-125)

White Sox starting pitcher Mike Clevinger’s stats look great, with a 2-0 record and a 2.20 ERA. But look underneath the hood, and you’ll find some troubling metrics.

Clevinger is walking 14.1% of batters faced and then stranding runners at an unsustainable rate (83.3%, MLB average is closer to 70%). He continues to pitch himself into trouble, and he won’t be able to escape it forever.

Clevinger’s batted-ball profile isn’t great, which helps contribute to a monstrous 5.96 expected ERA.

I’m also struggling to understand why he’s upping the use of his fastball and slider when his sinker was his best pitch last season.

All this to say: Clevinger is tremendously overvalued.

Conversely, Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker is undervalued. He’s also walking too many batters, but he’s also forcing weak contact at an elite rate, helping contribute to an expected ERA (3.06) over a run lower than his actual ERA (4.20).

And, after years of underutilizing it, Walker is finally leaning into his deadly splitter. It’s a small sample size, but he’s thrown the splitter more than any other pitch this season, and opposing hitters boast a .204 expected average against it.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are smashing the ball (. 788 OPS vs. RHPs, fifth in MLB), while the White Sox lineup is producing below-average (. 712 OPS vs. RHPs, 19th in MLB). So, between the starting pitching and lineup mismatches, it’s easy to see why I’m advocating for Philadelphia here.

However, it’s impossible to project either bullpen after a heavy-use doubleheader on Wednesday, so I’ll likely stay away from the full-game moneyline.

Instead, I recommend betting on the Phillies in the first five innings (at the right price).