Pirates-Dodgers prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, July 3

The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first game of a three-game series on Monday, July 3. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium. Mitch Keller (9-3, 3.34 ERA) will take the mound for the Pirates, while L.A. turns to Michael Grove (0-2, 7.54) in place of the injured Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers are -170 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Pirates coming in at +145. The total is set at 8.5.

Pirates-Dodgers picks: Monday, July 3

Injury report

Dodgers

Out: SP Clayton Kershaw (shoulder), UTIL Chris Taylor (knee), RP Shelby Miller (neck), SP Noah Syndergaard (finger), RP Tyler Cyr (shoulder), OF Trayce Thompson (oblique)

Pirates

Day to day: RP Jarlin Garcia (biceps)
Out: 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (back), LF Bryan Reynolds (back), SP Vince Velasquez (elbow), RP Wil Crowe (shoulder), DH Ji-Man Choi (Achilles), RP Jose Hernandez (calf), RP Rob Zastryzny (forearm), RP Colin Holderman (wrist), SS Oneil Cruz (lower leg), SP JT Brubaker (elbow), RP Max Kranick (elbow),

Starting pitchers

Mitch Keller vs. Michael Grove

After hitting a rough patch in late May/early June, Keller has gotten right back to shoving, allowing just two combined runs while allowing nine hits over 13 innings across his last two starts. The former top prospect has resurrected his career this season, with 11 quality starts in 17 trips to the mound while failing to complete six innings just four times all year. He has a true kitchen-sink approach, using five or six different pitches per start to keep hitters off-balance and force as much weak contact as any starter in the game (90th-percentile hard-hit rate, 87th-percentile average exit velocity).

Grove has had a rough time since coming back from a groin injury at the start of June, allowing exactly four runs in each of his last four starts. The righty has exactly one quality offering, a slider he throws nearly 50% of the time, but hitters have teed off on literally everything else. Until he shows something more, that’s likely to continue — especially against lefties, who have slashed .383/.471/.617 against Grove this year.

Over/Under pick

Grove has allowed fewer than four earned runs exactly twice all year, and he doesn’t seem very likely to make it three on Monday night. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled of late, but lefties like Jack Suwinski, Carlos Santana and Bryan Reynolds are in a great spot here with the platoon advantage against Grove. If the Pirates bust out the bats for five or six runs, this over should cash easily.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Pittsburgh has a massive advantage on the mound, and that presents a ton of value at these odds. For as dangerous as this Dodgers lineup is, they’ve blown hot and cold a bit of late, and if Keller can keep them in check for six innings or so, I think the Pirates lefties can do enough damage to give Pittsburgh an upset win in the series opener.