Play these 3 superfecta keys at Keeneland, 1 at Oaklawn

These Saturday races at Keeneland and Oaklawn meet the criteria I've establishedfor using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

At Keeneland

Race 9

The Lexington Stakes (G3), a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds on dirt, attracted 11 runners, including two trained by Brad Cox.

Ten runners exit dirt races - five at Fair Grounds, two at Tampa Bay andone each at Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Gulfstream - with the final runner comingout of a Gulfstream turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate ofone in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for alead at the second call one in four starts. I expect a pressured pace with theadvantage to runners just off the pace and closers.

One of the Cox runners is No. 3 Demolition Duke, who has run successfully atFair Grounds winning a sprint on debut and just missing in a route in both casesshowing some solid late foot. He should improve in his third lifetime start and isyour key runner at odds of 6-1.

No. 1 Baseline Beater shortens up after an inconsequential finish in the LouisianaDerby (G2) at a longer distance. The gelding shows three top four finishes from six races and possesses the closing punch to be a late factor if thepace is as hot as anticipated. He is 20-1.

Bill Mott sends out No. 8 Empirestrikesfast for only his second start following a victory from slightly off the pace in his debut at Gulfstream in a dirt route. Even aslight improvement puts him in the mix at odds of 4-1.

Steve Asmussen saddles No. 6 Disarm, who has never been off the board in fourlifetime tries and comes out of a strong second place finish in the LouisianaDerby. He should be part of the mix late at odds of 7-2.

The other Cox runner, No. 5 First Mission, ran successfullyat Fair Grounds, just missing in asprint on debut and winning his route debut. He will be a solid near the pace closerat odds of 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 5, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A field of nine fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up will face off at 1 1/16 miles on the turf in the Jenny WileyStakes (G1), including two trained by Chad Brownalong with two runners saddled by new trainers and another trying a turf route for the first time.

Eight runners come out of turf races - three at Gulfstream, two each atKeeneland and Santa Anita and one out a Dubai event - with the final runner exitinga Keeneland dirt race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three infour starts overall and is 14 of 14 at the distance. These runners have combined fora lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. The pace should besolid with the advantage to those runners forwardly placed.

Brown saddles No. 4 Speak of the Devil, who has one win and a fourth place finishin three stateside graded stakes tries after racing in France. She has been near the lead in her winning effort, and figures to be adaptable to her competitionin her first attempt beyond a mile in her U.S. starts. She is your key runner at 10-1.

No. 1 Pizza Bianca has a win and second at the distance and has faced some of thetoughest competition in the field. She shifts back to Christophe Clement after beinghandled by Graham Motion in California. She is a turf grinder and while she did not fare well her last five tries against large fields, she finished close enough tobe included at overlay odds of 20-1.

No. 3 Queen Goddess has three wins in four tries at the distance along with athird place finish and is going to be in a stalking position throughout. She comes intothis race with two graded wins at longer distances. She is 4-1.

Charlie Appleby ships in No. 5 With The Moonlight, who has wins on turf andsynthetic across three continents. Appleby has a formidable U.S. record and With The Moonlight figures to be a strong factor throughout at odds of 5-2.

Brown's other runner, No. 2 In Italian, is a need-to-lead type who hasnever finished off the board in nine lifetime starts, including six consecutive gradedstakes. She will be the betting favorite and may take her rivals gate to wire.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 3 and 5. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This optional claimer for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up run at 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt attracted a field of 12.

Six runners exit dirt races - three at Churchill and one each at Gulfstream,Santa Anita and Fairgrounds. Five runners come out of Turfway synthetic races, while the final entrant exits a Gulfstream turf event.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and at the distance. Runners havecombined to lead at the second callin  one in five starts. The pace should be fastwith the advantage to off pace runners and deep closers.

No. 9 My Kentucky Girl is five for six in the money on dirt and has one third placefinish at the distance. She has a strong closing punch and will be moving late asyour key runner at odds of 10-1.

Mark Glatt saddles No. 4 Ironic Twist, who has raced exclusively at Santa Anita, where she recorded two wins and a third against relatively small fields. She does not need thelead and looks like an overlay at 15-1.

No. 7 Ova Charged is largely a state-bred competitor in Louisiana with eightwins in 10 total starts across dirt and turf. She has won andfinished second at Monmouth and Belmont, respectively, and if she can  settle offthe lead she could be a strong factor. She is well worth inclusion at odds of 15-1.

Shug McGaughey sends out No. 3 Radio Days, who has never finished worse than fourth in nine starts. She will grind her way to a solid finish  and is 7-2.

The likely betting favorite is No. 12 Tarabi, who has never been out of the moneyin six lifetime starts, including two graded events. She has a pace pressing style andwill be a factor throughout at low odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 3, 4, 7 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

At Oaklawn

Race 9

The Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3), for 4-year-olds and up at sixfurlongs on the dirt, attracted a field of 10, including three trained by Steve Asmussenand two by Chris Hartman.

Nine runners exit dirt races - six at Oaklawn, and one each at Fair Grounds,Gulfstream and Turf Paradise - with the final runner exiting a Fair Grounds turf race.

Thefield has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and isthree of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the secondcall one in three starts for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with theadvantage to mid-pack runners and closers.

Bill Mott saddles No. 4 Candy Man Rocket, who will be well positioned to pass thewilting speed. He enters the Count Fleet with three wins and a second at the distance. He is yourkey runner at odds of 6-1.

One of the Asmussen runners is No. 9 Payne, a deep closer who shows seven in-the-money finishes in nine tries at the distance. He will be rolling late at attractiveodds of 20-1.

Keith Desormeaux trains No. 7 Surveillance, who has three wins and a second atthe distance and will be somewhere in the middle of the pack early behind someblazing fractions. He should be right there late at odds of 6-1.

One of the Hartman runners is No. 5 Tejano Twist, who has four wins, three seconds and a third from eight starts at thedistance. He packs a a very strong closingpunch and looks like a very tough competitor at 5-2.

Cox sends out the runner with the fewest starts in the field - No. 10 Strobe, who isundefeated at six furlongs. He is going to bepressured early but may have the most upside potential among the need-to-lead or up-close runners in the field and can last for a share at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 5, 7, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

•Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

•The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

•Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.