Post Time: Wide-open Kentucky Derby field to Run for the Roses

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Trainer Brad Cox is the official winning trainer of the 2021 Kentucky Derby, his first victory in the annals of America’s most famous race.

It just doesn’t feel like it to Cox.

Mandaloun, Cox’s second-place finisher, was declared the winner via disqualification in February 2022 due to a medication violation lodged against Medina Spirit, leading to the two-year suspension of trainer Bob Baffert from Churchill Downs.

Cox enters Saturday’s Derby with four potential horses that can wear the roses and help him celebrate a Derby victory the way it was meant to be.

“There was no experience of winning the Derby,” Cox said during a recent national racing media teleconference. “I think that’s why we do it. Winning the Derby is not about the money, really, when it comes to the purse or anything. It’s the thrill of the victory that you’re wanting to experience.”

The Louisville native’s best shot under the Twin Spires will come from Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire, listed at 8-1 on the morning line.

The bay colt won the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds, before shipping back into Oaklawn Park to win the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by a rousing four lengths and looking as if he was wanting for more.

The son of Classic Empire was purchased by Albaugh Family Stables for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.

The $3 million Grade 1 Kentucky Derby will be carried by NBC (Ch. 2) and Peacock in a 7½-hour telecast starting at noon EDT. Post time for the Derby is 6:57 p.m.

Since Thursday morning, four horses have scratched out of the race, placing all three also-eligible horses into the field. Last year, Rich Strike took advantage of a late scratch to get in and turned that into a win at odds of 80-1.

On Thursday, Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move scratched with a fever, which puts also-eligible Cyclone Mischief into the 20-horse field.

Later in the afternoon, Lord Miles was scratched by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, putting Japanese-bred Mandarin Hero into the Derby. On Thursday evening, Continuar was scratched by his trainer, getting King Russell into the race.

On Friday morning, Skinner, in the same barn as Practical Move, scratched with a fever as well, taking the field to 19 horses. The saddle numbers will not change due to the scratches.

It is the first time that four horses have scratched from the main Derby since 1936. Four horses scratched in 2015, but one was from the also-eligible list.

The forecast is expected to be cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s with a crowd of more than 160,000 expected.

Angel of Empire will be ridden by Flavien Prat, a jockey whose only Derby win also came via disqualification when Maximum Security was taken down by the stewards in 2019.

Standing outside of Barn 22 on the backside of Churchill Downs on Thursday morning in his signature blue baseball cap, Cox told The News he was most surprised by the colt’s development among all his 3-year-olds.

"We thought he was a horse that would get better, to sit here to say we knew he would win a Grade 1 race in the spring or thought he’d be a Grade 1 horse, no,” Cox said. “But he’s had to step up to do it, and I’m very proud of what he’s accomplished.”

He’ll have to work out a trip from his middle post, but Cox is confident Prat’s experience aboard his colt will make the difference.

“Just break, Flavien knows him, he’s going to be somewhere mid-pack, just hoping that he can get a good trip,” said Cox. “He put in a really good run there in Hot Springs in the Arkansas Derby. If we see that again, he’ll be in the mix at the end.”

His sire Classic Empire finished fourth due to a troubled trip in the 2017 Derby, but rebounded to finish second in the Preakness. His grandsire Pioneerof the Nile sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and his great grandsire won the Belmont Stakes, so there is plenty of stamina in his bloodlines.

A horse that Cox’s colt will have to overcome is race favorite Forte (3-1), who will be one gate outside Angel of Empire. The 2-year-old champion trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher will attempt to become the third horse in history to complete the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double.

The son of Violence comes out of a hard race in the Florida Derby in which he had to overcome the far outside post and rally late to edge a game Mage (15-1) at the wire. Pletcher cited the education he received in that race would be helpful come Derby day.

“As far as having a harder race than he did in the Fountain of Youth, everyone has different theories about that,” said Pletcher. “Some people think you need a hard race before the Kentucky Derby. For me, I'll always take the easiest way, but we have had five weeks to get ready.”

Pletcher is loaded with two other contenders in the race: Blue Grass and Tampa Derby winner Tapit Trice (5-1) and Kingsbarns (12-1). Tapit Trice seems the most likely “other Pletcher” to contend for the Roses. He has plenty of stamina and will be one to consider for the Belmont Stakes if he is faced with a troubled Derby trip due to his size and running style.

Kingsbarns is lightly raced with only three career races and unraced as a 2-year-old. The only horse to pull a Derby win off that ledger was Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018.

A long shot colt to consider underneath is West Coast shipper Mandarin Hero (20-1). The son of Shanghai Bobby will need some pace to run into on Derby day, but should be able to get position early from his outside post before making his signature late run to catch a piece of the exotics.

Woodbine-based jockey Kazushi Kimura gets the mount on his first Derby horse, and the 2019 Eclipse-winning apprentice jockey is excited about the opportunity. He was Canada’s top jockey and the leading rider at Woodbine for the past two years.

"I am so excited to get this opportunity, and I hope it can be a memorable day for the connections, the horse and myself,” Kimura told Woodbine Communications.

He rode the Japanese-bred colt in the Santa Anita Derby and was closing fiercely on the highly regarded Practical Move before he was nosed out for the win. Mandarin Hero earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. He could be overlooked as a late entry as an also-eligible on the tote board.

A horse I’ve been keen on through the prep season is Rocket Can (30-1), a gray colt who is another big long shot who should relish the mile-and-a-quarter Derby trek. Trained by Bill Mott and piloted by jockey Junior Alvarado, the son of Into Mischief will wear blinkers for the first time to sharpen his focus during the race.

“Visually, for me, they appear to be helping,” Mott said. “We had worked him before in blinkers and we had thought that they didn’t make an extreme amount of difference. But if they help just a little bit, that’s what you need.”

Alvarado will have to work out a trip from the outside on a horse that finished in the exacta twice at Churchill Downs during his 2-year-old season.

“I think it is a great post because he has tactical speed, he has been breaking well and putting himself in a good position,” Alvarado said outside of the Mott barn Thursday. “I have the Japanese horse (Derma Sotogake) on the inside, who has some kind of speed and hopefully if he breaks good and is forwardly placed, he might start dropping in and I’ll draft in right next to him.”

It’s a wide-open race with my top three all right there at the wire in the final prep races, with Rocket Can coming late to pick off horses to crash the exotics.

Post Time Kentucky Derby Outlook: 1 – Angel of Empire; 2 – Forte; 3 – Mandarin Hero; 4 – Rocket Can

Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association, and tweets@EquiSpace.