Preakness fair odds: Now Mage is the one to beat

I underestimated Mage. Let's just rip that bandage right off right now. I ignored him being one of the fastest horses in the race and instead focused on his lack of racing as a 2-year-old, and it cost me.

I guess I could say, "I won't make that mistake again," considering I have him as the most likely winner of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico. But on the other hand, at "only" 2-1 in the eight-horse field, Mage is likely to be an underlay.

I'm not bursting to bet against him, though. Yes, I still have concerns about his development. Five races at this level in about four months is a lot, and that was an improvement just two weeks ago. Put another way, if I didn't like him even a little bit in his fourth career start at 15-1, then how can I like him two weeks later at less than 2-1 in his fifth start?

Both First Mission and National Treasure should take some money and maybe a little on Blazing Sevens. But I just don't see the fervor to bet any of these horses who I suspect will be there with Mage, especially after Preakness fans missed a chance to bet the Derby winner last year.

There is a strong possibility that this race will lack an overlay in the win pool. Yes, both Chasing the Chaos and Coffeewithchris will be huge underlays compared with my fair odds, but we're talking about a swing of only a few points.

This is a gambling game, though, and I think the best gamble is to play Mage off the board completely. That is one of those bets that can make you look very foolish, but it's where the value is. Especially with the short field and at least one of the horses (maybe two) having very little chance, Mage is going to find his way on a lot of tickets that box him with others or key him on top. I'll try to get lucky with 1, 5, 6, 7, 8 boxed in both the exacta ($20) and trifecta ($30).

If I use Mage, it would be because I feel he's being ignored in the gimmicks and would key him with Red Route One and Perform only. In other words, two of the other three alternatives, 1, 7 or 8, would have to run out. I'd need to see him with less than 26 percent of the exacta pool to do that.