Predators and the Central Division Top Three: All Star Break Review
Just over halfway through the 2022-2023 NHL season, and it still seems like nailing Jello to the wall to predict how the Predators will finish the season. Despite some ambiguity in Nashville, there are a few clear playoff contention teams topping the Central Division as the NHL hits the All Star break. Here is a look at the top three teams in the Central - right now - and how Nashville stacks up against them.
Dallas Stars
51 games played, 66 points, 28-13-10
How They Got There
Prolific Offensive Weapons: Jason Robertson is lighting it up this year for the Stars. The 23 year old winger ranks sixth in the league for overall points and is tied for fifth in goals scored so far this season. Robertson has been playing alongside elder statesman Joe Pavelski who has come off a career year and continued to impress in his 17th season. Add in 40+ point performances by Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn, and Miro Heiskanen and a remarkable debut season for 19 year old Wyatt Johnston, and it is no wonder the Stars are at the top of the Central Division.
Special Teams: The Stars currently rank 5th in the league on the power play thanks in large part to the top power play unit of Robertson, Benn, Pavelski, Hintz, and Heiskanen. Dallas also doesn't tolerate much on the penalty kill, recording an 84% success rate when down a man.
Goaltending: While there has been plenty of good goaltending in the Central Division this season, Jake Oettinger's performance in net has been another key to the Stars' success this season. Only Vezina frontrunner Linus Ullmark sits ahead of Oettinger in goals against average, and Oettinger is tied for third in the league in save percentage behind Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin. Backup Scott Wedgewood has played 16 games for the Stars and earned a .911 save percentage with a 7-6-0-3 record.
Versus the Predators
Dallas has had Nashville's number in their three matchups so far this season. The Predators' embarrassing early losses to the Stars on October 13 (4-1) and October 15 (5-1) could have been chalked up to jet lag, but as the season unfolded it was clear that even a well rested Preds team likely couldn't have matched up against the Stars. Mason Marchment scored three goals against the Preds in those two games, while Roope Hintz was the spoiler when the teams faced off in late December. Nashville kept that game close until Hintz scored the game winning goal with less than a minute left in the game.
Nashville won't get a chance for revenge until the end of the season when they face the Stars for the final time on April 3. This could be a game with big implications for the Preds while it's likely Dallas will be comfortably looking ahead to the post season at that point.
Potential Down the Stretch
Every so often the team does lay an egg against far less talented rosters. In their January 19 loss the the San Jose Sharks, the Stars had a three goal lead before giving up five goals in a row to the Sharks. Those kind of games are the exception and not the rule for Dallas, but they also struggle to close out games that go past regulation. The Stars have lost 10 overtime games, second worst in the NHL only behind the Sharks.
This is a deep playoff run team. There is so much going well for the Stars this season, it would take several season ending injuries or top offensive players and Oettinger abruptly struggling for Dallas to fall much in the Central Division and exit the playoffs early.
Winnipeg Jets
52 games played, 65 points, 32-19-1
How They Got There
Connor Hellebuyck: Yes, there are other things going well for the Jets this season, but much like the Predators, Winnipeg's success rests with their net minder. Hellebuyck is right there in the Vezina Trophy conversation this season with one of the heaviest workloads in the league. The 29 year old ranks fourth in save percentage and seventh in goals against average right now but has played the most games of any goalie and faced the most shots in the league as well.
Offense from Scheifele, Connor, and Dubois: Three 50+ point scorers make a difference when it comes to wins and losses, and Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Kyle Conner are doing some heavy lifting for the Jets so far this season. Scheifele and Dubois are each chasing career bests in goals while Connor has picked up where he left off last season. Defenseman Josh Morrissey is dishing out assists like candy at a suburban Halloween party, and despite missing time with a lower body injury after a December game against the Predators, Blake Wheeler is back in the lineup for Winnipeg.
Versus the Predators
The Preds and Jets have split their first two games so far this season. Kyle Connor scored the overtime game winner in a 2-1 Jets victory on December 15. The Predators' January 24 2-1 win over Winnipeg was one of their three "statement games" after an impactful team meeting and before the All Star break that has given hope to Nashville fans that the Preds could make a run at the post season.
The teams will meet up twice more in an afternoon game on March 18 at Bridgestone Arena and at the end of the regular season on April 8th in Winnipeg. Four points against the Jets would go a long way for the Preds in this season's Central Division.
Potential Down the Stretch
Winnipeg could be in it to win it according to the latest odds from MoneyPuck.com. The Jets currently have a 36.2% chance of making it to the third round and a 19.3% chance to make the Finals. It's an impressive prediction for a team that few were certain about when the season began. Of course, all it could take would be one injury to Connor Hellbuyck to derail the hopes of Jets fans. Nashville has been down an eerily similar road with backup David Rittich starting in the postseason when the number one goaltender goes down. Winnipeg's hopes hinge on a healthy Hellebuyck.
Minnesota Wild
48 games played, 58 points, 27-17-4
How They Got There
Kirill Kaprizov: Although he isn't keeping up with last year's points pace, Kirill Kaprizov is still the backbone of this Minnesota Wild offense. So far the 25 year old has scored 27 goals and 59 points in his 48 games, and he headed into the All Star break with seven points in his last five games and the team lead in power play goals.
Mats Zuccarello and Matt Boldy: The veteran Zuccarello is projected to finish with his best career season in points and goals while young Matt Boldy's performance this season has been impressive enough to ink a massive 7 year, $49 million contract.
Six Game Win Streak: The Wild had a strong December, putting together a mid month six game win streak and an overall record of 10-4 which propelled them up in the standings.
Versus the Predators
In their one meeting so far this season Matt Duchene and Nino Niederreiter helped the Predators earn a 2-1 win on November 15. Former Predators Freddie Gaudreau kept it interesting by making it a one goal game in the third period, but this was a game that Juuse Saros stole for the Preds who were outshot 22-25 and gave up five power play chances.
The two teams will see each other again this month in a Sunday afternoon matchup in Minnesota and then the Wild wrap up their season against the Preds on April 13.
Potential Down the Stretch
After a bit of a rocky start, the Wild have been able to put together enough wins to remain a likely third in the Central Division team heading into the playoffs. If they can continue to get reliable goaltending from Marc Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson and Kaprizov, Boldy, and Zuccarello produce at their current rate, they will be a playoff contender.
The Predators are currently 2-3-1 against these top three teams in the Central Division, but with five games left this season against the Stars, Jets, and Wild Nashville could make a move in the standings and in fan confidence with solid wins over playoff contenders.
