Predicting UCF football record in first Big 12 Conference season

The time for conjecture will be over on Thursday night as UCF officially gets its maiden foray into the Big 12 Conference underway with a home opener against Kent State.

But until then, there's still a little time. And we have one last prediction to make.

A week after weighing in on Big 12 matters, UCF beat writer Chris Boyle and sports editor Ryan Pritt return to the crystal ball one more time to take a shot at the Knights' game-by-game results and final season record. UCF will play a trio of nonconference tilts starting with the Golden Flashes and followed by a trip to Boise State and a home date with Villanova before opening play in its new league at defending Big 12 champion Kansas State.

Chris and Ryan take their shots at the answer below:

Kent State at UCF, Aug. 31

• Series record: Tied 2-2.

RYAN: UCF opens its inaugural Big 12 season against a team picked to finish last in the East Division of the MAC. The latest line is 36.5. That ain’t high enough ... UCF 51, KENT STATE 9

CHRIS: The last time these two teams faced one another, they were conference rivals. That was almost two decades ago. UCF should take advantage of the home crowd, and an opponent virtually rebuilding from the ground up. … UCF 48, KENT STATE 10

UCF at Boise State, Sept. 9

• Series record: UCF leads 1-0.

RYAN: It takes a while to get used to crossing two time zones and playing against a good team in a hostile environment. This is good practice for the Knights, but Boise is good. Like, New-Year’s-Six-Bowl-Game good. Remember the name Taylen Green … BOISE STATE 34, UCF 28

CHRIS: This is the lone potential, non-conference banana peel. Boise State has notched 25 straight winning seasons, is 128-14 on the famed "smurf turf" of Albertson's Stadium this century and out for revenge after surrendering a three-touchdown lead in Orlando two Septembers ago. Expect this one to go down to the wire. … UCF 31, BOISE STATE 27

Villanova at UCF, Sept. 16

• Series record: First meeting

RYAN: This was already going to be a mismatch. Now, the Wildcats have to deal with a mad bunch of Knights … UCF 49, VILLANOVA 13

CHRIS: Villanova, under the leadership of longtime-assistant-turned-head-coach Mark Ferrante, is a consistent FCS winner. The Wildcats, however, will not be equipped to slow down UCF's speed and athletic advantages. … UCF 45, VILLANOVA 14

UCF at Kansas State, Sept. 23

• Series record: Kansas State leads 1-0.

RYAN: UCF was 78 nationally against the run last year and Kansas State should have the best run game in the Big 12. The Knights will be better, but not good enough in a bitter conference opener … KANSAS STATE 34, UCF 21

CHRIS: This is a tough draw for the Knights' Big 12 debut — on the road against the league's defending champion. Treshaun Ward is a more-than-adequate running back replacement for Deuce Vaughn, and the Wildcats return all five starters along the offensive line. … KANSAS STATE 30, UCF 16

Baylor at UCF, Sept. 30

• Series record: UCF leads 1-0.

RYAN: Baylor coach Dave Aranda is one of the best defensive minds in all of college football and an improved offensive line, bolstered by the portal, will make the Bears a heck of a grind to play against. UCF will have to earn it, and it will, but barely … UCF 21, BAYLOR 20

CHRIS: UCF announced a Bounce House sellout for its Big 12 home opener in the summer; the atmosphere should be magnificent, and enough to lift the Knights to a win over a quality Baylor team. Forcing either Blake Shapen or Sawyer Robertson into mistakes could be the difference … UCF 27, BAYLOR 23

UCF at Kansas, Oct. 7

• Series record: First meeting.

RYAN: What’s this? The Jayhawks, with expectations?! I like Jalon Daniels. I really like Lance Leipold. But I’m going to need to see the Jayhawks do it, when they’re supposed to, before I believe it … UCF 37, KANSAS 34

CHRIS: Consider me a believer. Kansas returns 91% of its offensive productivity from last season, spearheaded by Preseason Offensive Player of the Year Daniels. This could look foolish in a few months — the Jayhawks could just as easily return to Big 12 doormat status — but I'm forecasting another disappointing trip to the Sunflower State. … KANSAS 33, UCF 24

UCF at Oklahoma, Oct. 21

• Series record: First meeting.

RYAN: The Knights should be plenty motivated, what with former quarterback Dillon Gabriel now calling the signals for the Sooners. But this is a big year for Oklahoma, which will head to the SEC in 2024. This is a game the Sooners can’t afford to lose at home, and they won’t … OKLAHOMA 40, UCF 26

CHRIS: UCF will be motivated to show Dillon Gabriel that the pastures of Norman weren't greener and spoil the Sooners' homecoming plans for good measure. But, OU has to be better this year, right? Especially on defense. Otherwise, Brent Venables won't be long for the SEC-bound blue blood. … OKLAHOMA 41, UCF 31

West Virginia at UCF, Oct. 28

• Series record: West Virginia leads 2-0.

RYAN: The ol’ trap game, right between a rough one against the Sooners and a trip to a sworn rival. Seems like the perfect spot for my alma mater, which I promise you, won't finish dead last in this league contrary to popular beliefs … WEST VIRGINIA 27, UCF 23

CHRIS: At least you included the mandatory homer disclaimer; I commend you for that. We agree West Virginia will not finish last, but this could be a long day at the office for Neal Brown — or whoever is wearing the headset for the Mountaineers by the end of October. … UCF 38, WEST VIRGINIA 23

UCF at Cincinnati, Nov. 4

• Series record: Series tied 4-4.

RYAN: How will these two former AAC combatants make it to the back quarter of their respective schedules? It’ll go a long way toward determining this one. But I believe the Knights are positioned best among the four new members and they begin to prove it right here … UCF 30, CINCINNATI 17

CHRIS: Nippert Stadium has been a house of horrors for UCF, thinking back to the 52-7 drubbing in a winless 2015 campaign and the 56-21 blowout in favor of the Playoff-bound Bearcats in '21. Additionally, Scott Satterfield has outwitted Gus Malzahn the last two years as Louisville's head coach. But the Knights find a way to buck both trends. … UCF 33, CINCINNATI 30

Oklahoma State at UCF, Nov. 11

• Series record: First meeting.

RYAN: A little much-needed momentum carries the Knights into a tough one at home. I just trust Mike Gundy and that track record a little more than most, it seems … OKLAHOMA ST. 24, UCF 17

CHRIS: You forget one thing; the Knights will have the night off. UCF has scheduled its Space Game for its first encounter with Oklahoma State, and the Citronauts are 6-0 all-time. … UCF 34, OKLAHOMA STATE 28

UCF at Texas Tech, Nov. 18

• Series record: First meeting.

RYAN: The Red Raiders are a trendy pick in the Big 12 and for good reason. There’s no tougher place to play in the league than in Lubbock where the wind blows hard and the points pile up in a hurry … TEXAS TECH 45, UCF 35

CHRIS: I'm driving the Texas Tech bandwagon, and fully prepared to go down with the ship if it goes sideways. This is a good football team swelling with confidence after an historic sweep of Texas and Oklahoma, and a bowl-game rout of Ole Miss. To your point on Lubbock, the Red Raiders went 7-1 on their home field last season. … TEXAS TECH 44, UCF 24

Houston at UCF, Nov. 25

• Series record: UCF leads 7-3.

RYAN: With 10 past meetings, this is the most common opponent on UCF’s entire schedule. That familiarity will create a wild one, but the Knights earn bowl eligibility in the finale … UCF 38, HOUSTON 30

CHRIS: It will feel strange this Thanksgiving weekend with the Knights preparing for someone other than South Florida. Houston is, indeed, a familiar foe and forced to replace the elite passing tandem of Clayton Tune and Daytona Beach's own Tank Dell. UCF ends the regular season on a high note. … UCF 35, HOUSTON 24

FINAL RECORD

RYAN: 6-6 overall, 4-5 Big 12 Conference.

CHRIS: 8-4 overall, 5-4 Big 12 Conference.