Prediction after Bahrain winter test: this is what the ranking looks like

The Formula 1 season started with the winter test. The cars of all F1 teams were visible at the Bahrain International Circuit, and the body language from the teams said plenty. An overview of how all teams stand, concluding with a prediction of the ranking.

Everyone in the paddock agrees on one thing: Red Bull Racing are once again in a class of their own. It should come as no surprise that the RB20 is a lot faster than the competition. In 2023, Adrian Newey and his team were given plenty of time to work on the RB20 because the RB19 gave them a huge advantage over the competition.

Red Bull seems to have kept that lead or perhaps even extended it. The latter will only become clear at the first Grand Prix of the season. For that GP, many eyes are also on Ferrari. Frederic Vasseur's team presented a rather simple-looking car at launch, but drives well straight away.

Who can challenge Red Bull in 2024?

Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz both set fast laps and showed good race pace. From the side of the track, there was some understeer when accelerating out of slow corners. Still, Ferrari seems to have a slight upper hand over their competitors.

In that group, it is close. Mercedes, Aston Martin and McLaren have also built a car right up there immediately. Mercedes drove a lot with full tanks and thus has some extra. The car is better to drive for Lewis Hamilton and George Russell and has an innovative front wing design.

McLaren had some problems in the test week but are in much better shape than a year ago. Andrea Stella's main concern is progress. Which the team does seem to have made. It's unclear how much. Aston Martin are also surprisingly well-placed. In 2023, the team clearly chose the wrong path in the development battle, but now they're back. However, with the caveat that this is a circuit that has traditionally suited the car well.

Who disappointed in Bahrain?

Behind this group, Visa Cash App RB seem to have made a big jump. The team are tempering expectations, but the car looks good and stable. At Alpine, things look less rosy. The French are not at all happy with the progress, or lack thereof, they have made over the winter. They seem to be overtaken by VCARB.

Williams have opted for a radically different concept. Led by James Vowles, this car should provide a stable base to return to the top. The winter test did not go smoothly. In Red Bull's (old) style, Williams chose to send the car out on track as late as possible to work on updates until the last moment. That brought the necessary teething problems for the winter test and could also cause problems in the first few races.

The Stake F1 Team sank further and further in 2023, eventually finishing ninth. The team are very positive, but the car seems particularly tricky to drive. The rear end steps out several times in fast and slow sections of the track. Not a car to have a good race with, in other words.

Haas is the other extreme in this respect. Ayao Komatsu already announced that the team would not be competitive at the start of the season, and nothing proved to be true. Although the car looks stable, it is cumbersome and slow. Lap times do not say everything in the winter test, but Haas really came up short of the competition.

This is what the ranking prior to the 2024 Bahrain GP looks like

1. Red Bull Racing

2. Ferrari

3. Mercedes

4. McLaren

5. Aston Martin