Predictions for the 2023 Flat season including horses, trainers and jockeys to note
Andrea Atzeni to ride 100+ winners on the Flat in Britain in 2023
Andrea Atzeni hasn’t ridden 100 winners in a calendar year in Britain since 2018, but I’m expecting him to put that right in the coming months as he returns to life as a freelance jockey having split from prominent owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum in September last year.
Atzeni spent eight years as number one rider to Sheikh Obaid and together they enjoyed plenty of success at the very highest level with the likes of Postponed, Defoe and Emaraaty Ana, all of them Group One winners on British soil.
However, it’s fair to say that Atzeni has endured a rather frustrating run by his own high standards in recent years and I was surprised to learn that one of the most accomplished jockeys in the weighing room has ridden just one Group/Grade One winner – Emaraaty Ana in the 2021 Haydock Sprint Cup – since the start of the 2020 season.
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Atzeni was also a less common sight on Britain’s racecourses full stop in 2022, with his number of rides coming in at 386, fewer than in every other season since he first started riding in Britain in 2008.
A strike rate of 20% showed that the Sardinian-born rider can still get the job done when given the opportunities, though, and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t receive a lot more support this season, especially as he now has the luxury of deciding his own schedule rather than being dictated to by running plans for Sheikh Obaid’s horses.
After a spell riding in the Middle East during the winter, Atzeni has certainly begun the domestic campaign in a positive fashion with eight winners from 34 rides at a 24% strike rate. His winners have come for six different stables, including those of Marco Botti, Richard Hannon, Alan King, Freddie & Martyn Meade and Hugo Palmer.
Perhaps most significant is that Atzeni has ridden three winners from just five rides for Charlie Johnston, the most prolific yard in the country pretty much every year without fail. An association like that could be just what Atzeni needs to get back among the winners on a more regular basis in 2023. Adam Houghton
Ralph Beckett three-year-olds to make a big impact
Salisbury's fixture on Thursday 29 September may not have looked anything out of the ordinary, but it's a meeting well worth revisiting with an eye on the upcoming season.
Ralph Beckett won the first three races on the card with a trio of juvenile newcomers who go into 2023 unbeaten and open to plenty of progress.
Bluestocking, If Not Now and Remarquee are all promising in their own right, but it was the last-named who achieved the most on debut, looking like a Group-class filly as she powered home at the end of a truly-run race to beat the experienced odds-on favourite.
That performance earned Remarquee the Timeform Large P, a sparingly used symbol that denotes a horse is capable of much better form.
In addition to a host of dark horses, Beckett already has some high achievers in his ranks, including Salt Bay, who was beaten less than two lengths in third in the Group 1 Criterium International, and Lezoo, whose four victories at two included the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.
Lezoo carries the silks of Marc Chan whose Kinross also won four times last season, including a couple of Group 1s, and he'll be back for more at the age of six in 2023. Last season's Irish Derby winner Westover has also stayed in training - he was a good second behind Equinox in the Dubai Sheema Classic on Saturday - and he adds further firepower to a stable that looks set for a fine season. Tony McFadden
Bridestones to have a big season
I like latching onto a John Gosden-trained (sorry Thady, old habits die hard) filly early in their career if I can and Godolphin’s Bridestones strikes me as a top-level performer in the making. I’ve backed her for the Oaks at Epsom and hope she makes up into a Group One horse of that ilk, but whatever route the Gosdens plot for her I’ll be following her three-year-old season closely.
By Teofilo out of White Moonstone, she is beautifully bred and is a half-sister to a 1m4f winner, Sea Stone, so middle distances look likely to be her bag as the season progresses. She ran just the once at two, but showed heaps of promise when easily landing a Yarmouth maiden thanks to travelling well and utilising a swift change of gear.
It’s a race Gosden has used in the past as a launchpad for black type fillies like Shaara, Thunder Drum, Frankly Darling, Fanny Logan and Mehdaayih, and Bridestones looks the latest cab off the rank, so hopefully she pitches up in a nice Oaks trial in the spring before going onto something like the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot or, fingers crossed, the Oaks itself. Ben Linfoot
Denmark can develop into a top middle-distance performer
The ante-post markets for the 2000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger suggests that Auguste Rodin is the main classic hope for Aidan O'Brien and Ballydoyle this season, but I have a sneaky feeling that Denmark may improve past him this year, especially once tackling middle distances.
He looked a smart prospect when making a winning debut over a mile at Naas, showing clear signs of inexperience but powering away from his rivals as the penny began to drop in the closing stages. He started favourite for a sales race at Longchamp on his next start, but again looked very green, out of his comfort zone turning into the straight but once more staying on strongly to the line, only just failing to reel in the winner.
Denmark is bred to excel over middle distances as a three-year-old, by Derby winner Camelot and out of a smart mare who finished runner-up in Prix de l'Opera. He doesn't strike me as a Guineas type, but the 25/1 on offer for the Derby looks very appealing indeed. Andrew Asquith
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