Premier League: Aston Villa vs. Liverpool odds, pick & prediction

If you look at their record, all seems swell with Liverpool. The Reds have two wins and a draw from their first three matches and are coming off a famous come-from-behind victory at Newcastle last weekend.

Considering their schedule had them travel to Chelsea and Newcastle in two of their first three contests, Liverpool fans will be quite pleased that they’re only two points behind league-leading Manchester City as we head to the first international break of the season.

But if you dig a little deeper into Liverpool’s performances there are some red flags that suggest things aren’t as rosy as they seem in the standings.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa prediction: Analysis

While Liverpool has been resilient so far this season, they’ve also needed to come from behind in their two victories and have yet to put together a complete effort in any of their first three matches. Chelsea started slow in a season-opening 1-1 draw, but the Blues eventually wrestled control of that match from the Reds and were perhaps unlucky not to have taken all three points.

The performance was a lot better at home against Bournemouth, but Liverpool was still caught early in that match and the Cherries put two goals (one was disallowed) in the back of the net inside the first five minutes.

The defensive issues continued against Newcastle, as the Reds were struggling to cope with Anthony Gordon and Miguel Almiron out wide and needed some world-class goalkeeping to stay in the match. It needs to be noted that Liverpool deserve credit for hanging on in that match since they were down a man for the majority of the contest, but there were a lot of warning signs even before Virgil van Dijk was shown a red card.

None of this is to say that Liverpool isn’t a great team — they are one of the best in the world and are a threat to win the Premier League if Manchester City stumbles — but rather that they are not playing at a top level just yet and that there are real flaws with this side right now, especially defensively.

Aston Villa’s attack should be good enough to give this struggling Liverpool defense something to think about. After getting blown out, 5-1, to Newcastle in Matchweek 1, the Villans have outscored their opponents 7-1 and have created 5.4 expected goals along the way. Those results came against soft opposition, but Villa’s improvement under Unai Emery after the World Cup last year has seemed to carry over into the new season. This is a dangerous team with enough playmaking talent to stretch a team that has a lot of questions to ask in its own half.

With van Dijk suspended and the team yet to click into gear, Liverpool has the makings of a vulnerable favorite on Sunday morning.

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa prediction: Pick

The Bet: Aston Villa +360 (FanDuel)

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