Premier League: Liverpool vs. Chelsea odds, picks, prediction
It should be a raucous atmosphere at Anfield when Liverpool hosts Chelsea in Premier League action on Wednesday afternoon. Not only are the Reds on top of the table with 17 matches to go, but legendary manager Jurgen Klopp shocked the world last week by announcing he would step down from his position at the end of the season.
The reaction to Klopp’s announcement from Liverpool fans has been expectedly emotional and it does seem like that sentiment is seeping into the betting market.
It’s been a banner season so far for Liverpool. The Reds have a five-point cushion over Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa and their statistical profile suggests there’s nothing flukey going on here. Liverpool’s attack ranks second in goals scored, but they’re first in non-penalty expected goals, big scoring chances created and shots per 90 minutes.
Liverpool’s offensive flair has always been its calling card, but inconsistency on defense has caused it issues in previous campaigns. This season it seems like Klopp has sorted out the defensive flaws and has the Reds ranked inside the top-4 in most predictive metrics.
Chelsea’s statistical portfolio isn’t as straightforward. The Blues have terrific underlying metrics -- they have the fourth-best expected goal difference in the Premier League -- but their surface-level stats are lacking mostly because they have struggled to bury the scoring chances they’ve created.
Nonetheless, Chelsea have steadily improved as the season has gone on and come into this match riding a three-match winning streak in the Premier League, albeit against a weak schedule.
Simply put, these odds just look too wide considering Chelsea’s statistical profile and the talent on the roster. The Reds deserve to be the decided favorite, but the Blues are dangerous and this is the kind of spot that you want to buy Chelsea in. The Blues are the proverbial team that can beat any team in the league on their day, but they also can lose to inferior teams, too.
Liverpool always are a bit inflated due to their profile, but the sentiment that they’re going to be an inspired bunch to give their departing manager seems to be pushing their number too far. Go against the grain with Chelsea in this spot.
The Bet: Chelsea +450 (FanDuel)
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