Premier League: Manchester City vs. Brentford odds, picks, prediction
Manchester City is in a familiar spot.
Around this time last year City were trailing Arsenal in the Premier League title race, but the consensus was that it was inevitable that the Cityzens would catch the Gunners and win the title.
Not only did that happen, but City went on to win the league comfortably thanks to a blistering run of form down the stretch.
This time around City is not only in a scrap with Arsenal to win the league, but both clubs are currently looking up at Liverpool who own a five-point lead on Manchester City, though the Cityzens have two games in hand.
City can’t afford any slip-ups against lesser opposition if they want to complete the four-peat. The Sky Blues are prohibitive -270 favorites at Brentford on Monday afternoon.
Brentford have struggled to find consistency this season, but they remain a dangerous underdog. The Bees currently sit in 15th-place and are just three points above the relegation zone. That said, Brentford’s statistical profile suggests they are playing a lot better than a team sitting just above the cutline.
According to Understat’s expected points model Brentford “should” have 10 more points than they actually do. That makes sense when you consider the Bees rank sixth in the Premier League in expected goal difference (+6) but are just 13th in goal differential (-5). Positive regression should be coming for Brentford, especially since star striker Ivan Toney returned from suspension.
City’s statistical portfolio is excellent as ever, but the team does lag behind its usual standard in creating big scoring chances. City still ranks sixth by that metric and their elite in every other category, but it does make you wonder if their attack is a tad overrated compared to what we usually expect out of this squad.
One aspect of City’s game that isn’t overrated is its defense, which is among the best in Europe.
Brentford isn’t an easy team to unlock -- the Bees beat City twice last season -- and should make the three-time defending champs earn it on Monday afternoon. This match has all the right ingredients for a bet on the Under 2.5.
The Bet: Under 2.5 (+140, DraftKings)
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