Premier League, Odds, Picks

Southampton vs Tottenham Odds

Southampton look to get out of the bottom of the table when they host Tottenham.

They are in the relegation fight and dropped a crucial match on Wednesday to Brentford 2-0. Saints are only two points from safety, so every single match from here on out is crucial if they want to survive. Tottenham beat them 4-1 on opening weekend, so they’ll be out for revenge on Saturday.

Spurs beat Nottingham Forest last Saturday to remain in the final Champions League spot in the table. It’s been a weird season for Tottenham with Antonio Conte likely leaving the club at the end of the season, but they are still in the thick of the top four battle. This is one of those matches where they need all three points if they want to finish inside the top four.

Southampton in Fight Mode

Desperation time has set in for Southampton in the relegation fight. They are now on their third manager of the season and will continue to set up as a direct counterattacking team under Rubén Sellés.

Southampton have run ridiculously cold defensively this season and a lot of it comes down to bad goalkeeping play. The Saints have allowed 43 goals off 36.3 xG and their goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu had a -10.7 post shot xG +/-.

Unless he is the worst goalkeeper in Premier League history, he is bound to improve and regress towards the mean. Selles went back to Southampton’s patented 4-4-2 that they played for years under Ralph Hasenhüttl, which will give Southampton more structure and it helped them get a clean sheets against both Chelsea and Leicester City.

The problems that have existed for Southampton are because of their attack. They do not have a good striking duo that can finish at a high rate.

Southampton are only averaging 0.88 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just 14 big scoring chances on the season. That is a problem going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League.

However, Southampton have been much better at home than they’ve been on the road this season, as they only have a -3.2 xGD at the St. Mary’s Stadium versus a -7.7 xGD away from home.

Tottenham Committed to Unique Style

Tottenham are much different than all of the other big six clubs. They are not a possession-dominant team that is going to press high and try to win the ball off you in your own half of the pitch. They have a very passive defense, but they are absolutely elite at defending their penalty area.

Spurs are best in the Premier League in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, meaning only 22.4% of the time their opponent enters the final third are they able to turn that into a penalty box touch.

It’s translated to the quality of chances they’ve allowed as well, as Spurs are third in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed. However, that type of style doesn’t really set up well unless their opponent is a very possession-based type team, which Southampton aren’t.

Tottenham are a really good counterattacking side, but there have been some questionable offensive performances as of late. Despite scoring twice against Chelsea, they only created 0.7 xG. Against AC Milan they only created 0.9 xG total over the two legs, and they just created 0.8 xG against Sheffield United in the FA Cup.

Southampton vs Tottenham Pick

I don’t see Southampton coming out and pressing Tottenham high in this match and their pressing numbers this season indicate they’re not as frenetic as they were with Ralph Hasenhüttl, as they rank ninth in PPDA and 13th in high turnovers.

That means you are going to get a good 4-4-2 defensive structure from Southampton, who will essentially dare Tottenham to break down their low block. That is something Spurs have struggled to do this season.

Therefore, I like the value on Southampton +0.5 at +105 to get a result at home.