Premier League predictions: Everton vs. Liverpool odds, pick, Feb. 13

The 242nd Merseyside Derby will have a different feel to it. Everton are still in the heat of a relegation battle but have some momentum building under new manager Sean Dyche, while Liverpool have stumbled in a way we haven’t seen in quite some time. 

Even with their struggles, Liverpool is a big favorite to beat their eternal rivals. Can the Toffees pull the upset on Monday afternoon?

Everton vs. Liverpool prediction

Everton +500 (FanDuel)

It’s not fair to say we should throw all of Everton’s numbers out the window with Dyche now in charge, but they should at least be taken with a grain of salt. The Scot is a master at raising the floor of his teams, especially defensively, and that is a huge deal for a team that ranks 18th in expected goals conceded, 19th in big scoring chances allowed and has allowed the second-most shots this season.

Because they lack much bite offensively, it’s imperative that Everton contain their opponents on a consistent basis. They’re not built to win 3-2 games, but rather to eke out results with guile and effort. 

That said, there is a good chance that Everton find the back of the net in this tilt. Being without Dominic Calvert-Lewin will hurt, but it’s more about Liverpool’s defense than what Everton will offer going forward. The Reds rank 12th in expected goals against, 14th in big chances allowed, and perhaps most importantly, 19th in expected goals conceded on set pieces. None of that bodes well for Liverpool, but Everton have been strong on set pieces all season and Dyche is a master at organizing them, so look for the Toffees to take advantage in that area.

Liverpool’s attack still profiles to be a handful, but they’ll be missing some key components all over the pitch and that should help Everton control the middle of the field and negate Liverpool’s transition game a bit.

This number has crashed after Everton’s impressive upset over league-leaders Arsenal and Liverpool’s head-scratching loss to Wolves, but there’s still plenty of value on the underdogs. The Toffees should feel confident under their new manager and they’ll make life miserable on the Reds, who have lost three of four coming into this match.

There’s a decent chance that this line moves as buyback money comes in on Liverpool, and once it does, strike on Everton to pull the upset at Anfield.