Premier League predictions: Newcastle vs. Brentford odds, pick

Perhaps no team had more positive momentum going into the 2023-24 Premier League season than Newcastle United.

Flush with cash and buoyed by qualifying for the Champions League, the Magpies were backed as a potential gatecrasher in the title race during the offseason.

Three losses in their first four matches of the new campaign has changed things a bit.

Despite the poor form, Newcastle is a -180 favorite against Brentford on Saturday afternoon.

Newcastle vs. Brentford pick

It needs to be noted that Newcastle’s first four matches of the season came against Aston Villa, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton.

That’s three of the best teams in the league and a dangerous one in Villa. Getting three points from a possible 12 is still a disappointment for the Magpies, but nobody is going to press the panic button after a run like that.

A loss to Brentford at home would cause some rumblings, however. 

Perhaps the one real reason for concern for Newcastle after the 1-0-3 (W-D-L) start is the manner in which they’ve lost.

City are the best team in the world, so we can draw a line through that result, but the defeats to Liverpool and Brighton were head-scratchers. 

Newcastle were firmly in control against Liverpool, leading 1-0 and up a man after Virgil van Dijk was shown a red card in the 28th minute, but the Magpies completely capitulated in the last 20 minutes of the match and watched the Reds score twice in the last 15 minutes to steal all three points.

Newcastle could have felt a bit unlucky not to have had a bigger lead at that point, but the fact is that they played things too close to the chest despite having Liverpool on the ropes.

If you let a team like that hang around, you’ll be punished.

The loss to Brighton was a different story.

The expected goals show it was a closer match than the 3-1 scoreline, but Brighton was the better team for the lion’s share of that match and a good chunk of Newcastle’s 1.3 xG came via Callum Wilson’s garbage time goal.

Newcastle was one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League last season but that form hasn’t shown up in the new campaign.

The Magpies have yet to keep a clean sheet and have conceded seven goals on 5.0 xG through four matches.

And things won’t get much easier this weekend against a Brentford side that has generated the most expected goals and second-most big scoring chances through the first four matches of the campaign. 

Newcastle may be the more likely side to win this match, but the Bees are always worth a gamble when they’re being offered at this kind of price.

Especially when this offense is humming.