Premier League something or nothing: Are Chelsea bound for third, are Manchester United a midtable team?
The Premier League season is, for most teams, four games old. That might be far from sufficient for us to draw reasonable conclusions about what a team is, but it's not too early to start looking for hints. Expected goals (xG), for instance, can start to be taken to be predictive of future performance at around the five game mark, so we're almost there and it's never too soon to ask questions about where clubs are heading. Afterall, more than 10% of the season is in the tank. Some teams who expect to be scrapping at either end of the table may come to view the late summer weeks as the period that defined their campaign.
With that in mind, we've scoured through the table, data and the big talking points of the season so far to assess what might be a freakish start to the season and what might be a harbinger of the months ahead.
1. Are Chelsea the third best team in England?
Even the most demanding of Chelsea supporters would surely have concluded at the start of this season that this would be something of a rebuilding year, one where simply moving up towards the European places would be progress after a disastrous first season under Todd Boehly's Clearlake consortium.
And yet through four games much of the data says this could be a team that finds itself operating at the upper limits of the Premier League. Chelsea's xG difference is the fourth best in England behind presumptive top two Manchester City and Arsenal, who find themselves bisected by Brentford (more on whom shortly). Scrub penalties out of the equation and the Blues leapfrog both their London rivals; at 4.15 their xG difference is double that of Newcastle and Tottenham with Liverpool and Manchester United even further back.
Those performances, however, haven't been reflected in the table so far. The only Premier League opponent Mauricio Pochettino has beaten has been Luton, his new side drew with Liverpool on the opening day and have since been defeated by West Ham and Nottingham Forest. Those results add to the sense of unknowability around this team. If there were to be a group of players who would struggle to break down a 10 man opponent at the London Stadium, it would be one thrown together on the fly over the past year. Equally, it is no great surprise that Chelsea pumped up their own xG at Stamford Bridge last weekend while giving up nothing to Forest after the visitors took the 49th minute lead. Then there is a home game against Luton, who really are not very good at all. There is the potential for an almighty amount of air in this start.
If the totality of Chelsea is a little hard to read, we can at least make reasonable inferences on players old and new. Enzo Fernandez is the real deal, Raheem Sterling seems to have relished the responsibility of being a veteran attacker for Pochettino and Nicolas Jackson is just a shot machine, averaging 3.8 of them per 90. Add Christopher Nkunku into the mix after he returns from injury, and the attack should flourish.
Is it enough for third? Well, hmmmm, I don't know, maybe? It's not like an obvious alternative candidate bar Brighton has emerged in the first few weeks. Liverpool and Tottenham look like must watch teams for neutrals, but that is as much a problem as a cause for celebration, Newcastle's midfield appears to be less than the sum of parts and then there is Manchester United...
Verdict: A scintilla of something
2. Manchester United look mediocre
Manchester United might have six points from a possible 12, but it could have been so, so much worse. They fell into a two goal hole against Nottingham Forest and were comprehensively outplayed by Wolves in their opening game. Discount Bruno Fernandes' penalty from the win over Forest and Erik ten Hag's side have a negative xG difference of -0.3, placing them 13th in the league. That is somewhat surprising when you have seen any of their games this season. Such a lower midtable ranking flatters them.
In that opening game against Wolves, United's midfield, something of a generous definition of Casemiro on an island, was run through at will. Something of a solution emerged when Mason Mount was dropped for Christian Eriksen but two 31 years old who struggled to be available last season doesn't seem a sustainable solution. New signing Sofyan Amrabat might offer ball recovery. but for most of his career he has not been much of a progressor, quite the problem when United are getting so little ball carrying or passing from anyone in their backline not named Andre Onana.
That much was apparent in their defeat against Arsenal, a game that ended in the sort of dramatic fashion that rather eclipsed how shoddy United's ball progression was against the half press of their opposition, the Gunners more than willing to force possession in the direction of Aaron Wan-Bissaka. When your starting full back on one flank is a consistent trigger for opposition pressure, and you're so short on options on the other that you have to loan in Sergio Reguilon, there are problems.
Further forward the picture is not much rosier with Casemiro the second highest in terms of non-penalty xG. It's not that United's wide forwards aren't taking shots, they are just largely very bad shots. Antony and Alejandro Garnacho have taken 18 shots worth a combined 0.99 xG. Young forwards need to learn by making mistakes, but Garnacho in particular has an almost pathological instance on shooting when a defender is a few yards in front of him.
Antony's involvement in the coming weeks remains unclear amid allegations of violence levelled at him by multiple women. Manchester United said last week that the Brazilian would be absent from the club with no timescale set for his return. Footballing matters pale into insignificance compared with the claims made in this case, but there are on field consequences to the absence of a regular starter, ones that will be all the more keenly felt with Jadon Sancho and Ten Hag at loggerheads over his training conduct. A team that struggled to offer much in the way of attacking muscle last season are really going to need Rasmus Hojlund's sparky cameo against Arsenal to be the norm over the next few weeks, and even that will only address the troubles in attack. United may have the individual talent to win matches but early on they look like a team who, at best, might just be in the mix for Champions League qualification.
Verdict: Something, by United's historical standards
3. Manchester City, defensive juggernauts
On four occasions this season, a Premier League team has given up 25 or more shots on their goal. Not all of them, it should be noted, are Luton or Sheffield United. That number is notable because it is the same number of shots Manchester City have given up on their goal in 300% more football matches. Pep Guardiola's side have faced 13 shots fewer than anyone else, so it is no surprise that their xG against of 2.74 is by some distance the division's best, Arsenal nearly a whole expected goal behind.
Of course, it helps City no end that they have had 67 percent of the ball so far this season, and it should be noted that when they averaged that much possession in 2021-22 they also gave up the 0.7 xG per game that they are tracking at now. To give you a sense of how impressive that is, the ultimate example of excellent defenders in a good system who were still performing a little too well for this to be a long term trend was Chelsea in 2020-21 following the appointment of Thomas Tuchel. That team gave up more shots per game than this current iteration of City, 7.6 as opposed to 6.3, while allowing opponents an average of 0.6 xG.
Chelsea's defensive excellence then proved to be unsustainable, with the teams performances eroding over the next season. Will City's? The case in favor is that the defensive form to start this season is merely a continuation of how the treble winners ended last season; a quartet of center backs (or players such as Kyle Walker who could play that role) screened by Rodri is a recipe for defensive solidity, particularly when Mateo Kovacic, a player who tends to stay in deeper areas more than Ilkay Gundogan, is added to the mix.
Set against that is a fixture list that has, Newcastle aside, been fairly favorable. Two newly promoted sides and Fulham are hardly a serious test of City's defensive excellence. That may not come until October, when the champions face Arsenal, Brighton and Manchester United. Even if that does show that they are not quite at the level of some of the Premier League's greatest ever defenses, City could be a fair degree more vulnerable to the best teams and still be a very, very hard opponent to score on.
Verdict: A small something
4. Everton are doomed, right?
We should start with the metric that, as any Proper Football Man will tell you, is the only one that counts. No one ever won a title because they had the best xG difference, but plenty did because they had the most points. Right now Everton have only one of them, and even that was secured in semi-ignominious fashion as Sean Dyche's side became the first to drop points to a promoted opponent in their 2-2 draw with Sheffield United.
A team that has finished 16th and 17th in their last two seasons staggering out of the blocks. This is it for them, their overdue relegation inevitable, right? Wrong. Probably. For starters, it was something of a recurring theme at Burnley for Dyche's side to start slowly only to breeze through the winter months with such ease that they were functionally safe by the time spring had sprung.
There is more than coincidence to give you faith in Everton, however. Through their first four games they have a look of an eminently midtable team, the sort who are going to be on the end of the odd battering at the hands of an Aston Villa and who might get unlucky against the Fulhams and Wolverhamptons Wanderers of the Premier League, but they'll nab points they aren't supposed to too, perhaps on a balmy Sunday afternoon when Arsenal come to town. Aside from the ownership, some of the recruitment decisions and the general vibes, Everton seem just about fine. At least they do in the one way that can allow them to paper over the many other cracks on Merseyside by getting results.
Though they haven't come through in four games that have brought defeats to Aston Villa, Fulham and Wolves, alongside that draw with Sheffield United, the underlying metrics look adequate. In those matches they have given up 46 shots (the same number as Brighton and three fewer than Chelsea) worth a combined 6.77 xG and taken 59 shots worth a combined 7.28 xG. In the two preceding seasons their xG difference per game was -0.4 and -0.56. Now it is up at the gaudy midtable heights of 0.13, a benchmark of adequacy.
Crucially you can see some of those Dychian qualities shining through in those first four games. Only Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal have allowed their opponents fewer touches in their penalty area than Everton. So far they haven't picked up Burnley's old trick of baiting forwards into bad shots, but if you are stopping the other team from getting into the danger area, then that is half the battle won. With Beto recruited to offer something akin to Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the frequent event that the No.9 is unavailable, Abdoulaye Doucoure crashing the box late on and new signing Jack Harrison primed to deliver dangerous crosses from the box, this squad has the look of one that suits its coach.
The case against Everton is that they've put up these numbers against teams who, Villa aside, they will be scrabbling to get ahead of come April and May. Those teams have now been handed seven points and that is a cause for concern; it is not unimaginable that results in August prove to be retrospective six pointers. More likely, however, is that teams that profile as a cut above relegation fodder tend to be... a cut above relegation fodder. Given the last few years that should be more than enough for Goodison Park.
Verdict: Nothing, probably
5. Brentford are better without Toney
If any team could have been priced in for something of a slow start to the season it was Brentford. Not only were they to be shorn of their talismanic striker Ivan Toney, banned until January 17 over betting violations, but they would also soon lose David Raya on loan to Arsenal with a view to a permanent signing. Both players had been replaced in a fashion, Mark Flekken a direct replacement for the latter whilst Kevin Schade was more of an addition to a forward line that would need rejigging if it was to fill an 20-goal gap in the roster.
They look to be on the path to plugging that gap, registering a league-leading 8.45 xG against Tottenham, Fulham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. Even if you take out Bryan Mbuemo's two spot kicks, so elegantly taken that one half wonders whether Toney should be guaranteed his penalty taking role on his return, the best attack in the league belongs to the Bees. Mbuemo, second in the league's scoring charts behind Erling Haaland, has rightly won praise for his goals, but the major swing has come from Yoane Wissa. Last season the 27-year-old got most of his minutes off the bench, averaging 1.8 shots per 90, 0.28 xG and 0.25 goals. That output has exploded early this season with 0.64 xG, 0.54 goals and a gaudy 4.1 shots.
The man himself has a simple explanation for all this. "I played as a striker at times last season as well, so now my teammates know me. I play with them every day in training, they know how I run," he said after his goal in a 3-0 win over Fulham. "We're just getting better and better and better."
Better might be a subjective statement but Brentford have certainly changed. The team that was defined by those searching long balls from Raya to Toney are going long even more frequently despite the lack of a totem at the top of the pitch, Flekken hitting passes into the channel for his wingers to chase. Curiously, the Bees are doing that while also completing more sequences of six or more passes, averaging over 25 per 90 as opposed to 18 last season. There is still a long ball quality to them, but it comes together a little more slowly as Thomas Frank's side gravitate towards one side then rapidly deliver the ball to the other, whether that is in the direction of the overlapping Rico Henry or Mbuemo. As the graphic below indicates, it is an extremely effective weapon in the Brentford arsenal. No team has completed more successful switch passes in the attacking third this season.
Certainly Brentford are a more effective Toney-less force than many skeptics had assumed. That is not quite the same though as them being a better team without last season's third highest scorer. If their long ball game has elevated without Toney, how much might it improve when he returns to the side?
Verdict: Nothing... but Brentford are quite the force with or without their star striker
