Preview and Predictions for MLB's Loaded Free-Agent Starting Pitching Market
But buckle up for some bad news if you think you're going to be able to sign an even halfway decent free agent for that amount, as that number is laughably deflated by the roughly 50 percent of pitchers who made less than $1 million as either arbitration or pre-arbitration players.
A more useful number would be the average salary of starting pitchers who signed contracts as free agents last year. That was $12.6 million with 21 of the 36 getting eight-figure salaries.
And, again, that's the average.
From what wasn't even a great crop of free-agent pitchers.
The figure of $12.6 million barely got you Ross Stripling or Sean Manaea last offseason, and there's no chance it would get you Lucas Giolito or Marcus Stroman this offseason.
In fact, there legitimately could be 10 starting pitchers signing deals with average salaries of $20 million or greater.
It's a very expensive gamble, of course.
You might give Nathan Eovaldi a $17 million salary and get yourself a World Series Game 1 starter. Conversely, you might give Jameson Taillon a $17 million salary, lose 18 of his 30 starts and miss the postseason by a razor-thin margin. And let's not even talk about what the Yankees got for giving Carlos Rodón $27 million per year, or what the Rangers got for Jacob deGrom's $37 million per year.
But those are the going rates for a prospective ace these days.
- Aaron Nola
- Blake Snell
- Jordan Montgomery
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Sonny Gray
- Eduardo Rodriguez
- Lucas Giolito
- Marcus Stroman
- Shoto Imanaga
- Jack Flaherty
- Frankie Montas
- Luis Severino
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Clayton Kershaw
- Trevor Bauer
- Julio Urías
- Seth Lugo
- Michael Wacha
- Kenta Maeda
- Mike Clevinger
- Nick Martinez
- Michael Lorenzen
- Sean Manaea
- Martín Pérez
- Tyler Mahle
That's it. That's the tier. His contract is going to be more than double that of the next wealthiest free agent in this year's class.
Aside from Ohtani, these are your candidates for nine-figure deals that span more than half a decade. Montgomery is the only borderline one of the bunch. Nola, Snell and Yamamoto should combine for about half a billion dollars.
We said earlier that there could be 10 starters getting $20 million-plus salaries this offseason. These are the other five, and these are the ones for whom it's plausible we'll see a smaller-market team—Orioles, Reds or Twins, most likely—stretch its wallet to land what could be a bona fide ace of the staff.
These are the wild cards who were top-tier pitchers at some point in the past half-decade but are now major question marks due to some combination of injuries, ineffectiveness or issues off the field. Of the bunch, Flaherty is the best (and perhaps only realistic) candidate for a multi-year deal. But if signed, the news of it will raise eyebrows for each of these pitchers.
Whatever the average salary ends up being for free-agent pitchers this year—$15 million?—these are the guys who should be gettable at or a bit below that price point and could be solid middle-of-the-rotation options. (Random observation: Five of these nine pitched for the Padres in either 2022 or 2023.)
The five pitchers in the top two tiers will each get their own section, but we wanted to also venture some guesses at that next quintet of noteworthy arms on the move.
Sonny Gray, RHP, Minnesota Twins
184.0 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.0 K/9
At 34 years old, Gray is hitting free agency for the first time in his 11-season career. And he does so after a spectacular campaign, likely to result in his second top-three Cy Young finish and his first since 2015. Because there are already more than 1,500 innings' worth of mileage on his pitching arm, a fully guaranteed three-year (or more) deal maybe isn't happening here. But he should fetch one of the highest salaries of this year's class on a short-term contract.
Gray Prediction: Two years, $50 million (with a club option for a third year) with the Philadelphia Phillies
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Detroit Tigers
152.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
Rodriguez could have stayed in Detroit for another three years and $49 million, but he is destined for a larger payday after a great run through 2023. In 11 of his 26 starts, he went at least six innings and allowed either zero or one earned run. He has now made 55 such starts in what has to be one of the better pitching careers to have not yet produced an All-Star Game invitation. If he's able to stay healthy, he might be the best "bang for their buck" pitcher in this year's free-agent class.
Rodriguez Prediction: Four years, $76 million with the Baltimore Orioles
Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox / Angels / Guardians
184.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 10.0 K/9
Traded once and waived once, Giolito took the mound for just about every disappointing American League team in 2023. He's young enough (29) that he could reasonably get a long-term deal. But after two straight subpar seasons, it's likely he'll follow Carlos Rodón's blueprint from two offseasons ago, looking for a two-year deal in the $40 million range in which he can opt out of the second year if he's able to reestablish his greatness in 2024. He may even follow in Rodón's footsteps to San Francisco.
Giolito Prediction: Two years, $42 million with the San Francisco Giants
Marcus Stroman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
136.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Given the combination of injuries and poor performance in the second half of 2023, it's a little surprising that Stroman didn't just take the $21 million player option to stay with the Cubs. At 32 years old, though, he might feel like it's now or never for a long-term contract. And given how impressive he was in the first half of this past season, he just might get a repeat of the three-year, $71 million deal he signed two years ago.
Stroman Prediction: Three years, $60 million with the Minnesota Twins
Shōta Imanaga, LHP, Yokohama BayStars
159.0 IP, 2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.6 K/9
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the marquee pitcher coming over from Nippon Professional Baseball, but Imanaga could be quite the consolation prize. The 30-year-old southpaw averaged nearly eight strikeouts per walk in 2023 and should be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter in the majors.
Imanaga Prediction: Four years, $64 million with the Chicago Cubs
2023 Stats: 188.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
Pitch Arsenal (in descending order of 2023 usage): 93 mph sinker, 83.5 mph changeup, 80.5 mph curveball, 93 mph four-seamer, 88 mph cutter
Projected Price Tag: Five years, $110 million
Projected Landing Spot: Texas Rangers
At 30 years old with a sub-4.00 ERA in three consecutive seasons, Jordan Montgomery was already going to be one of the 10 most coveted free-agent starting pitchers when the 2023 regular season ended.
Then the World Series run happened, in which he gave the Rangers 31.0 solid innings with a 2.90 ERA.
Now he's right up there with Aaron Nola for fourth-best starter in this year's free-agent class. (Third-best if you don't count Shohei Ohtani.)
It's mostly because of his sinker.
Since the beginning of 2022, only Chris Bassitt has had a than Montgomery's, which has been worth 28.6 runs above average, per Statcast. And though Montgomery is by no means a flamethrower, he did have slightly more oomph on that sinker (and his four-seamer) in 2023 than he did in previous years.
For as valuable as it is, though, the sinker isn't even his out pitch. Those would be the curveball and the changeup, which become virtually impossible to barrel when you're looking for the sinker.
Montgomery doesn't generate many strikeouts, though. In fact, he went six innings without a single K in his lone appearance of the World Series. But he has tallied 44 quality starts over the past three seasons, not including his two scoreless gems in the 2023 postseason.
Pair him with a solid middle infield and he has proved himself to be one of the current top-30 starters in the majors. And to that end, the Rangers already have both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on long-term deals and know firsthand how much value this lefty can provide.
If the champs are doling out any more nine-figure contracts this offseason, Monty is likely at the top of their list of targets.
2023 Stats: 193.2 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
Pitch Arsenal (in descending order of 2023 usage): 79 mph curveball, 93 mph four-seamer, 92 mph sinker, 86 mph changeup, 86 mph cutter
Projected Price Tag: Six years, $160 million
Projected Landing Spot: St. Louis Cardinals
The year 2023 wasn't a banner one for Aaron Nola. He allowed a career-worst 32 home runs and had his lowest strikeout rate since 2015.
He was great in the postseason with everyone watching. And he stayed healthy. Again. Which is at least half of the gamble you're making when signing a free-agent pitcher to a long-term deal. (See: deGrom, Jacob; Rodón, Carlos; Strasburg, Stephen). Nola has made more regular-season starts (175) since the beginning of 2018 than any other pitcher, plus nine more over the past two postseasons.
While I suppose you could view that as a concern about the mileage on his arm, it's more of a testament to his durability on the mound.
And at least on the strikeout front, Nola bounced back admirably from a rocky start, averaging 10.4 K/9 from June 1 onward, once he honed in the curveball and started generating more swings and misses on his four-seamer.
To some extent, one also needs to consider the defense behind Nola, who has had a sub-3.80 xERA in each of the past four seasons. Having Kyle Schwarber in left and/or Nick Castellanos in right for all 32 of his starts cost Nola an estimated near-one earned run per game in 2023. Give him an above-average corner outfield alignment and maybe he gets back into the Cy Young mix for years to come.
All of the deep-pocketed teams will be in the mix for the 30-year-old, but this season's home run woes might dissuade both the Cubs and the Yankees from offering top dollar. (In his career, he has a 5.50 ERA at Wrigley Field and a 5.56 ERA at Yankee Stadium.)
St. Louis just feels like the best fit, as the Cardinals would love to replace their retiring, longtime durable ace (Adam Wainwright) with another one.
2023 Stats: 180.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.7 K/9
Pitch Arsenal (in descending order of 2023 usage): 95.5 mph four-seamer, 81 mph curveball, 87 mph changeup, 88 mph slider
Projected Price Tag: Six years, $180 million
Projected Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
For the second time in his career, Blake Snell led the majors in hits allowed per 9 IP at a Sandy Koufax-like rate of 5.75. It wasn't quite as low as his 5.58 mark from 2018 but still a heck of a lot better than anyone else did in 2023. (Corbin Burnes was next-best at 6.55.)
Dating back to 1990, the other multiple-time leaders in H/9 were: Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Chris Young, Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander.
Hard to argue with hitting free agency right after joining that star-studded club.
Excluding Shohei Ohtani, Snell is likely going to get the highest salary in this free-agency cycle, and on a contract that could span six or seven seasons.
He probably won't quite hit Stephen Strasburg's seven-year, $245 million deal, nor will he even sniff Gerrit Cole's nine-year, $324 million contract, but $30 million per year on a 6/180 or 7/210 deal might be on the table.
There are two concerns with Snell, though: Durability and the sky-high walk rate.
Because he doesn't often last seven full innings in a start and because he does often miss multiple starts per season, the 30-year-old has logged 130 innings in a season just twice in his eight-year career. Granted, those two seasons were stupendous, Cy Young campaigns. But $30 million per year for a guy who usually doesn't even come close to pitching enough innings to qualify for the ERA title is quite the risky investment.
And though he was able to repeatedly climb out of his self-dug graves in 2023, Snell now has a cumulative walk rate of 4.5 BB/9 over the past three seasons. A similar walk rate in 2021 resulted in a 4.20 ERA, when he didn't have the near-impossible .470 OPS against with runners in scoring position that he had this season.
Still, if Carlos Rodón was deemed worthy of a six-year, $162 million contract offseason, Snell has to be worth more than that. Because as long as he keeps striking out better than 30 percent of batters faced, he always has a chance to be elite.
2023 Stats: 171.0 IP, 1.16 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Projected Price Tag: Eight Years, $210 million
Projected Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Given how impressive Kodai Senga was in his MLB rookie season after coming over from Japan, it's easy to understand why people are always in a rush to compare Yoshinobu Yamamoto to him.
Except it's not even a good comparison.
Over his final three seasons in NPB, Senga had a 2.21 ERA, a walk rate of 3.34 BB/9 and a grand total of two complete games (no shutouts). His best pitch is the "ghost fork."
In Yamamoto's last three seasons, he has a 1.42 ERA, a walk rate of 1.78 BB/9 and two no-hitters among his 12 complete games (seven shutouts). His best pitch is the "Yo-Yo Curve."
One was pretty good while the other was a force of nature.
Plus, the force of nature enters free agency almost five full years younger than the pretty good one.
The bidding war for the 25-year-old will be unlike anything we've seen since Masahiro Tanaka was posted during the 2013-14 offseason.
The Yankees won that battle a decade ago, and they figure to be one of the top bidders again. They already have both Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón signed to expensive long-term deals, but their rotation gets questionable in a hurry after that.
Heck, given how poorly (6.85 ERA) and minimally (64.1 IP) Rodón pitched in 2023, even the supposed No. 2 starter is a big question mark. And you know they are desperate to make at least one big splash after missing the postseason.
One thing to keep in mind when eying up the field of candidates to sign Yamamoto is the posting fee that will be owed to the Orix Buffaloes for making him available. It's 25 percent of the first $25 million ($5 million) of his contract, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million ($4.375 million) and then 15 percent of everything beyond that. So, if he signs a deal at our projected price tag of $210 million, that team also has to send $33.375 million to Orix.
That won't deter the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees, but that's quite the "tax" to consider.
2023 Stats: 132.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.4 K/9
Pitch Arsenal (in descending order of 2023 usage): 84 mph sweeper, 97 mph four-seamer, 89 mph cutter, 89 mph splitter, 95 mph sinker, 76 mph curveball
Projected Price Tag: 10 years, $520 million
Projected Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani will not pitch in 2024, but you simply have to bet on him being able to return to the mound in 2025 or else you're not going to win this bidding war.
And when he was able to pitch in recent years, not many have been more dominant.
Among the 104 pitchers to log at least 300 innings pitched since the beginning of 2021, Ohtani's 2.84 ERA is good for sixth-best, just barely behind both Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. He also has the fourth-best strikeout percentage (31.4) of that group, just fractionally behind both Blake Snell (31.5) and Carlos Rodón (31.8).
The big unknown is whether he can fully return to that level of excellence following the second major elbow surgery of his career.
Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com wrote in August about pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery twice, and here's hoping Ohtani follows Nathan Eovaldi's path back to stardom as opposed to Josh Johnson's path to never pitching again.
With that in mind, though, here's a hypothetical I've yet to see anyone discussing: What if Ohtani agrees to his massive contract before "failing" his physical like Carlos Correa did?
Ohtani's camp has yet to divulge exactly what surgical procedure he had performed on Sept. 19, but they can't conceal that information from an MLB owner trying to invest half a billion dollars in him. And if the team that wins the initial bidding war gets cold feet after getting a chance to dig into his medical records, that moment in history might be what finally breaks Twitter/X for good.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that, though.
