Prop bets: Ohio State at Michigan
The biggest football game of the 2023 college football season is hours away. No. 2 Ohio State faces No. 3 Michigan at the Big House on Saturday afternoon, the second straight year -- the first time in this series -- and fifth overall that these two Big Ten rivals have met as undefeated teams. The winner of this game is headed to Indianapolis next weekend to take on No. 13 Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
As if this rivalry needed any more juice added to, the Buckeyes and Wolverines have thrown respect out the window and replaced it with hatred. Neither head coach would discuss the other this week, and players bit their tongues not to say that would be construed as bulletin board material.
With sports betting legal in Ohio for the first time in 2023, we wanted to take part in some of the fun. Throughout the season, our team writers have been giving their predictions on various prop bets as a friendly competition between Dave Biddle, Steve Helwagen and Patrick Murphy. We've kept track of how they've done.
Here are the results so far:
It was not a good week for either Helwagen or Murphy, and Biddle took advantage, likely locking up his spot at No. 1 for the regular season. The other two will hope to have much better weeks this week.
Let's get into this week's prop bets.
Kyle McCord passing yards - 237.5
Biddle: Under
I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring game with both teams leaning on their running game. The Buckeyes will throw the ball more (and likely more effectively) than the Wolverines, but I'll still barely take the under here.
Helwagen: Over
Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 247 yards for Maryland against Michigan last week. C.J. Stroud for over 300 yards against Michigan each of the last two years. I don’t have many reservations about Kyle McCord being in the 250 range here.
Murphy: Over
Only four times this season has Kyle McCord, who has thrown for 263.5 yards per game, failed to reach 238 yards. Most of those were games where he didn't need to throw the ball all that much for Ohio State to win. Michigan does have the second-best pass defense in the country, but Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 247 yards last week despite multiple turnovers. I don't think he has to be the star of this, but McCord will have to make some throws and I think will get over, although it may be close.
J.J. McCarthy passing touchdowns - 1.5
Biddle: Under
I might give J.J. McCarthy one, but not two. I won't be surprised at all if he's shut out in terms of throwing for touchdowns.
Helwagen:Under
I think passing touchdowns against this Ohio State secondary might be hard to come by. I will say J.J. McCarthy throws one.
Murphy: Under
J.J. McCarthyhasn't accounted for a touchdown since late October against Michigan State. That streak may come to an end in this game but I don't believe the quarterback will get more than one in this game.
Marvin Harrison Jr. receptions - 5.5
Biddle: Over
Even with Michigan keying on him, Marvin Harrison Jr. gets at least six catches in this one.
Helwagen: Over
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught seven passes against Michigan last year (for 120 yards). If he can be in that seven to nine range, that should be a big day for the Buckeyes.
Murphy: Over
Marvin Harrison Jr. better get the over. I do think Emeka Egbuka could have a good day since the Wolverine defense will key on Harrison, but the Buckeyes still have to get the ball in the hands of their best player regularly. The Scarlet and Gray are also pushing for Harrison to be a Heisman Trophy finalist, so he needs to be involved regularly in this one.
Roman Wilson receiving yards - 47.5
Biddle: Over
Roman Wilson is Michigan's best wide receiver (statistically) and will be dangerous on crossing and other short-to-intermediate routes. I don't think he will have a huge game, but I see him reaching 48 receiving yards.
Helwagen: Under
For starters, we don’t know if Roman Wilson will play or how much after he took a heavy hit and may have been concussed last week vs. Maryland. Again, I think Denzel Burke et al. keep him under wraps.
Murphy: Over
I don't think it's a big day for any Michigan wide receiver, but it wouldn't surprise me if there's one wideout right around 50 receiving yards. Roman Wilson is J.J. McCarthy's top target so I would not be surprised for the quarterback to go to him a number of times.
This one will be tight, but Michigan also throws a decent about to their No. 2 tight end, AJ Barner. So, I'll say Farmer Gronk will edge Colston Loveland in receptions. A push would not surprise me though.
This is a great question, however. I just think OSU is on a track to attempt and complete more passes. Colston Loveland is a good tight end, as OSU found out last year.
Stover averages 3.8 receptions again, while Colston Loveland is at just 2.9. That doesn't necessarily reflect how this game will play out but I think the Buckeyes will need to lean on Stover at times.
Which team scores first?
Biddle: Ohio State
With a question like that, I always go with the team I am predicting to win the game. I have the Buckeyes 24-17 in this one, so I'll say they will get on the board first.
Helwagen: Ohio State
Oh, man. Tough one. I’ll say Ohio State, but it might not be until the Buckeyes’ second possession. I think the teams trade punts or there is a turnover early.
Murphy: Michigan
I don't know how to predict this one in any scientific way, but wouldn't it be more fun to see Ohio State come from behind to win this game on the road?
