PSG vs Lens prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for match with Ligue 1 title implications
Already out of the Champions League and the Coupe de France, Ligue 1 leaders Paris Saint-Germain now face a battle to keep their stranglehold on the one potential trophy remaining as they host second-placed Lens at Parc des Princes on Saturday.
The Parisians were bounced from continental play by Bayern Munich in the Round of 16, but that feels like months ago as their lead atop the domestic table begins to thin with every negative result. After consecutive losses to Rennes and Lyon, PSG topped Nice 2-0 but even that felt foreboding. The PSG back line was repeatedly pummeled, with Gianluigi Donnarumma standing on his head and the Nice attackers failing to produce the necessary finishing touch.
Now, the thin and wounded PSG squad returns home to a somewhat hostile environment holding a six-point lead that feels even slimmer. Parc des Princes hasn't exactly been a welcoming fortress, as fans boo Lionel Messi and other stars to anoint scapegoats, often in the wrong places. Furthermore, the Auteuil stand will be partially closed (not for the first time this season) thanks to a sanction from Ligue 1 after fans deployed banned pyrotechnics during the Lyon defeat.
Lens, meanwhile, are in exceptional form, on a four-match winning streak while outscoring opponents 10-1 in that span. They beat PSG in the reverse fixture on New Year's Day and have put real pressure on the leaders since. Now, they could pull within one result of taking over the top spot should they emerge from the capital victorious.
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 51.7% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 31 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 46 of 87 match outcomes via his 3-way moneyline leans to date.
PSG vs Lens match facts
- Date: Saturday, April 15
- Kickoff Time: 3:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm BST / 5:00 am AEST (Sun, Apr. 16)
- Location: Parc des Princes (Paris, France)
- Official: Willy Delajod
- Last meeting: Lens 3-1 PSG (Jan. 1, 2023 | Ligue 1)
PSG vs Lens prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+320)
- Handicap lean: Lens +0.5 (+110)
- Score prediction: PSG 1-1 Lens
In truth, this match is a tough one to predict from a final scoreline standpoint. It's easy to see this one being a fireworks show with guns blazing between two teams motivated to contest a title, or it could truly end up as a putrid affair between two sides with uninspiring finishing happy to settle the score elsewhere.
At the end of the day, I'm trending towards the latter. PSG are no doubt vulnerable, but Lens aren't exactly the most convincing ball club of all time either. Lois Openda is a force up front, but as a whole, Lens are one of the worst finishing teams in the league, and their expected goals allowed of 34.55 (to just 22 goals conceded, for a +12.55 differential that is tops in Ligue 1) betrays a slightly more porous defence than their results would appear.
Ultimately, I'm backing the goalkeepers in this game. Lens' Brice Samba, with a +4.53 differential between goals conceded and xGOT faced, third best in the league, has been one of the best goalkeepers in the French top flight, and Donnarumma has come up huge for PSG in recent weeks. Even if this one turns out an end-to-end affair, the goalkeepers should keep a lid on things in a low-scoring draw that ultimately satisfies both sides enough.
PSG vs Lens: best bet
- Pick: Over 28 total shots
- Odds: 5/4 (SkyBet)
I have zero confidence in either team putting a significant amount of shots on target, given how frustrated — and frankly, at times, disinterested — PSG look lately, and how poor Lens have been at converting chances into goalkeeper engagement.
What I do have confidence in is these teams attempting to do just that. Someone is going to get trigger happy in this match down the stretch, whether it's PSG panicking after falling behind, or Lens pressuring PSG smelling blood like Nice did last weekend.
It's hard to tell how many genuine chances will come to fruition in this game between an in-form team like Lens against a PSG side prone to frustration and mental collapse. Twenty-eight shot attempts is a high bar to clear: PSG are second in the league in shots, and they average 14.87 per game. Yet it feels like this total, no matter how truly venomous they end up being, is within the bounds.
PSG vs Lens prop bet
- Pick: Lens double chance
- Odds: +110 (BetMGM)
PSG haven't looked this vulnerable in a long time. They are unquestionably beatable, and even in their victories, the performances are far from convincing.
A colleague pointed out that it seems like PSG play better on the road, where they're away from the jeering of their home fans. While the win at Nice didn't really come in a fashion that would support them improving away from the capital, they certainly don't play well at home and may very well be feeling the pressure of a season threatening to spiral out of control.
Lens kept a lid on PSG last time out, and while the output of both these defenses has been a bit of fools' gold, which leads us to avoid the inflated under, there's still the heavy potential for the hosts to get frustrated quickly.
