PSG vs. Milan prediction: Champions League odds, pick Tuesday

Paris Saint-Germain is flying under the radar a bit in this season’s Champions League.

At this time last year, PSG’s roster was headlined by an attacking triumvirate of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar Jr. and expectations were as high as ever for a club that had a reputation for coming up short when it mattered most despite having one of the most expensive wage bills in the history of soccer.

This “superteam” was supposed to finally put an end to the narrative that Les Parisiens were the biggest underachievers in soccer, but instead, it just added more fuel to the fire.

Not only did they come up short in their goal of finally winning the Champions League, but they didn’t even make it past the Round of 16.

(3 p.m. ET., Univision)

It was the second year in a row and fifth time in the last seven iterations of the Champions League that PSG was eliminated in the Round of 16. It’s almost unfathomable for a team with this kind of financial backing.

Rather than just try to run it back with Messi, Mbappe, and Neymar, PSG decided to refresh its identity over the summer.

Luis Enrique was brought in as the manager, while Messi and Neymar headed out the door and left Mbappe as the unequivocal face of the club.

All the turnover and the fatigue from watching this team stumble well ahead of the finish line time after time kept expectations rather low for PSG ahead of the 2023-24 Champions League.

In fact, there were plenty of pundits who were predicting that PSG would struggle to get out of the group stage thanks to a horrible draw that saw them placed in a quartet with Newcastle, Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan.

It was arguably the strongest group in the history of the competition.

But so far, PSG has proven to be the class of Group F and could essentially book its place in the knockout stages with a win in Milan on Tuesday night. Les Parisiens are a +120 favorite on the three-way moneyline on the road.

While PSG has generally taken care of business in this Champions League draw, it’s been quite the opposite for Milan. The Rossoneri have earned a couple of scoreless draws through their first three matches, but they’ve yet to score a goal and looked wholly disinterested in doing so in Paris two weeks ago in a 3-0 defeat.

That performance wasn’t a one-off, either. Milan has created under 1.0 expected goals in four of its last five matches and has scored only three times in that span, with two of those tallies coming in the same match.

PSG’s possession-based style of soccer can take the sting out of elite offenses, so I don’t see Les Parisiens having too much of an issue against a Milan attack that looks all out of sorts at the moment.

Going on the road and winning in the Champions League is never easy, but the price on PSG is tempting and may only get longer since bettors tend to lean toward teams in must-win situations like the one that Milan finds itself in on Tuesday afternoon.

THE PICK: Bet PSG +120 on the three-way moneyline.(BetMGM Sportsbook)