Puerto Rico Open Tips 2024

golfbettingsystem.co.uk

29 February 2024

Stats Pages For This Event

It’s easy to overlook these ‘second division’ alternate PGA Tour tournaments and focus on the main event which this week is the Arnold Palmer Invitational. However these alternate events are a massive opportunity for both players and punters alike and we’ve enjoyed success in the past. This week’s Puerto Rico Open is where the less fortunate have a huge opportunity to grab a PGA Tour victory and, more importantly, full playing privileges until the close of 2026. Don’t underestimate the importance of that prize!

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of Puerto Rico Open winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this coastal test:

2023, Nico Echavarria (-21). 316 yards (7th), 42.9% fairways (56th), 77.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 68.8 % scrambling (27th), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th).
2022, Ryan Brehm (-20). 308 yards (2nd), 53.6% fairways (41st), 73.6% greens in regulation (11th), 94.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th).
2021, Branden Grace (-19). 289 yards (27th), 57.1% fairways (39th), 79.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 73.3 % scrambling (22nd), 1.70 putts per GIR (18th).
2020, Viktor Hovland (-20). 291 yards (14th), 71.4% fairways (23rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 81.3 % scrambling (6th), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2019, Martin Trainer (-14). 307 yards (7th), 51.8% fairways (62nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (4th), 66.7 % scrambling (32nd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
2017, D.A. Points (-20). 288 yards (52nd), 83.9% fairways (1st), 88.9% greens in regulation (1st), 62.5 % scrambling (52nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (9th).
2016, Tony Finau (-12). 291 yards (23rd), 60.7% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (19th), 85.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.79 putts per GIR (37th).
2015, Alex Cejka (-7). 280 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (8th), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8 % scrambling (16th), 1.77 putts per GIR (28th).
2014, Chesson Hadley (-21). 290 yards (26th), 67.9% fairways (29th), 80.6% greens in regulation (6th), 64.3 % scrambling (45th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
2013, Scott Brown (-20). 301 yards (7th), 71.4% fairways (15th), 68.1% greens in regulation (62nd), 65.2% scrambling (47th), 1.55 putts per GIR (1st).
2012, George McNeill (-16). 279 yards (31st), 64.3% fairways (49th), 77.8% greens in regulation (5th), 50.0% scrambling (42nd), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
2011, Michael Bradley (-16). 293 yards (43rd), 64.3% fairways (24th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 61.5% scrambling (22nd), 1.75 putts per GIR (20th).
2010, Derek Lamely (-19). 283 yards (11th), 50.0% fairways (66th), 72.2% greens in regulation (32nd), 80.0% scrambling (6th), 1.62 putts per GIR (3rd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

Driving Distance: 21st, Driving Accuracy: 35th, Greens in Regulation: 12th, Scrambling: 25th, Putting Average 11th.

Let’s take a view from players as to how Grand Reserve Country Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:

Nico Echavarria (2023): ” You never think you’re going to shoot 6 under on the front nine the third round, so I knew it had to be a low one because he had a big lead. I gave myself some really good chances on the front nine, putter was hot. The back nine, how I said, it plays a little harder, some shots into the wind that are uncomfortable, some tee shots. But I’m happy with the back nine finishing strong. Obviously not birdieing 18 feels like you lost a shot, but overall it’s not a comfortable tee shot left to right with hazard on the left, so I’m happy with how I finished.

With the way I was playing the last couple weeks, at Honda, that course is really hard but I missed the cut by 8 or 9. At Pebble I missed it by a lot. You just, you just don’t think it’s going to get better until things like this week clicks and finding something on the range on Friday just changes your week. I think like if I wouldn’t have had that practice session on Friday afternoon very late and found what I found, I don’t think I would be here because it cleared my mind up. I was thinking too many things, I was on a bad spot mentally before coming to this week.”

Ryan Brehm (2022): “Yeah on 18, the wind was helping. It was down off the left and I just kind of aim a little bit right on that hole and try to rip it really and I got it working with the wind and I got it down there I think good 235 front. It’s kind of a guessing game out of these fairways to get the right numbers downwind, but we got a pretty good guess, I suppose. We hit a 5-iron to, I don’t know, 30 feet left and made the putt. “

“Yeah, you know, I have to really thank, this victory wouldn’t have happened without the first four events on the Korn Ferry Tour for me this year. And it’s so difficult out there. It doesn’t get the notoriety quite like the PGA Tour, but my goodness, there’s some great players and difficult conditions, difficult golf courses and it really prepares you to come out here and have some success. So this victory wouldn’t have happened without those first four starts.”

Branden Grace (2021): “Coming here, I didn’t really know what to expect, but the golf course is great. I think they’ve really played it safe so far. And the wind has been consistent. But I feel, Anirban and I actually spoke on the golf course, even with this 15-20-mile-an-hour wind, it still feels like it’s gettable out there. You can make some birdies and give yourself some chances.”

“And knowing what the golf course is going to offer. When I got here, it was firm, it was breezy. And that’s what the locals said it’s going to be like this the whole week. So I love playing in the windy conditions. I see the shots. I love feeding the shots, and things like that, and really moving the ball out there And I just played some flawless golf this week.“

Viktor Hovland (2020):“Weather’s been nice. It’s been pretty windy, which I’m kind of used to in Oklahoma. I feel like the wind is blowing out of the same direction here every day, so I think we’ll see the course playing very similar to the first couple days. I’m sure the pins are going to be a little more tucked in the corners the next two days, so it will be interesting to see how it plays.

I played really well today, kind of the same round as the last two, just been playing really solid off the tee and been hitting a lot of really good iron shots into the greens. Early on in the round I didn’t really make that many putts, but I did a really good job of just staying calm. Thankfully on the back nine I started making a couple putts and got me going.

Sunday: “Yeah, it was very up and down, like the first five, six holes we played, you know, almost like yesterday, a little less wind, it was pretty ripe for scoring. Then the wind started swirling coming out of the other direction where it was suddenly into the wind on No. 8, which makes that hole a lot harder. And then obviously from there on in you had a lot of rain, wind and it was switching back and forth. So it really, it played a lot harder than it did the other three days.”

Martin Trainer (2019): “Yeah. I mean, to a certain extent, I think you have to be able to play in the wind to make it here. But I think this course suits me more because it’s just a long bomber’s course, so I can hit a lot of drivers and try to get as far down there as I can and not worry about hitting one too far offline. So I think that’s been a big benefit

This golf course, actually I was talking about it with Ryan, my caddie, it reminds make a lot of this golf course I played at in Mexico on the Latinoamerica Tour in Mazatlan. It looks just like it. It’s wide open, windy. It really is like a replica of this golf course. So I thought about that I won at that golf course and we were talking about it all week how this is just, you know, a carbon copy of that course and how we have good vibes going into this week. I’m just happy it worked out.”

D.A. Points (2017): “You know, that was always a strong suit of my game and then when I went to try to make some changes in 2014, it went to the worst part of my game. That just goes to show how silly I felt for trying to change things, but I wanted to get better. To come back and to be so calm and comfortable, and this golf course, you have to drive it straight. It can be kind of demanding on some tee shots and to be able to hit some really quality tee shots today under the gun gives me a lot of confidence.”

Ian Poulter: “I like the windy conditions. It kind of takes me back to hitting some old-school shots and I feel comfortable on the course. The ball was kind of boring through that strong wind, so you’re still able to get good distance out there. But I’m happy.”

Alex Cejka: “You know, I loved it here. I’ve been coming here for many years, and I even played well here, but I kind of never, you know, played good enough, because in the past the scores were like 20 under, you know. So it’s a challenging course with the wind. So I always was playing well, but the scores were always so low, and you know, this year it was the same wind, same course, but somehow the scores are not 20 under, but 7 under. So it was a little bit tougher. Maybe the wind was maybe a little bit stronger. They didn’t move the tees up like what they normally do like on the weekends. Maybe today a couple holes. But you know, it’s just we all were playing just good golf, and you know, somebody has to win, and finally it’s me.”

Chesson Hadley: “I think just the way the holes set up. It fits how far I hit the ball. Like the fairway bunkers are positioned in places where I can hit driver, hit 3 wood or hybrid or whatever and I’m not really stressing about what club to hit. Like I mean I know exactly what club I’m pulling, you know, walking to the tee. That’s what I like so much about it is just the easy decisions I feel like this course provides, me at least.”

Scott Brown: “Yeah, the toughest thing about this course is it’s all cross winds, so you very rarely get any downwind or into the wind shots. It’s all quarter in or across. That’s what makes it so tough. But it’s really just guesswork. It’s guessing on how much you think it’s going to move it. The wind has been so strong that you can’t really play shots that hold up against it. You’ve just kind of got to let the wind do what it does. It suits my eye pretty well, and I think it’s a great golf course. It’s got a great mix of holes. It’s not our typical Tour course now where it’s so long. It keeps a lot of us in the game a little bit here, and I think that’s why you see that.”

George McNeill: “The course and conditions reminds me of home (Florida). I play on a lot of this same grass at home. Plus I like a little bit of heat and humidity and stuff. Doesn’t bother me. So that’s really about it, and I guess for whatever reason, the golf course suits my eye.”

Incoming Form of Puerto Rico Open winners since 2010:

Nico Echavarria: MC PGA National/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
Ryan Brehm: 38th Suncoast/9th Astara/32nd Panama/18th Abaco.
Branden Grace: 20th Riviera/34th Pebble/MC Waialae/8th DPWTC.
Viktor Hovland: 38th Pebble/MC TPC Scottsale/23rd Dubai/MC Abu Dhabi.
Martin Trainer: 28th Pebble/MC PGA West/MDF Waialae/MC RSM Classic.
D.A. Points: 39th Pebble/MC Torrey/66th PGA West/45th RSM Classic.
Tony Finau: 43rd Bay Hill/MC Copperhead/MC PGA National/MC Riviera/MC TPC Scottsdale.
Alex Cejka: MC PGA National/67th Riviera/34th Pebble/MC Torrey Pines/15th PGA West.
Chesson Hadley: 24th PGA National/MC Riviera/10th Pebble/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
Scott Brown: 7th Colombia/3rd Panama/30th Pebble/MC Disney/20th Sea Island.
George McNeill: MC Honda/49th Riviera/MC Pebble/33rd TPC Scottsdale/49th PGA West.
Michael Bradley: MC PGA National/MC Rivera/MC Pebble/MC Torrey/15th PGA West.
Derek Lamely: 73rd PGA National/MC El Camaleon/MC Pebble/42nd Torrey/18th PGA West.

As we can see, winners here can come from different ends of the betting market. Branden Grace in 2021 was a 20/1 chance, as he delivered an eagle/birdie finish to edge-out Jhonattan Vegas (40/1) by a single shot. Viktor Hovland won this in 2020 as the 12/1F, beating 150/1 Josh Teater with a spectacular birdie from distance to again win by a single shot.

Prior to Branden who captured his 14th global title here and the prodigious young talent of Viktor, winners of the Puerto Rico Open tended to be from the juicy mid-price or even bigger. I suppose that is logical when you remember how hard it is to triumph on the PGA Tour, it’s hardly surprising that the market leaders, who know they are in half-decent nick form-wise, when thrust into the uncomfortable position of favouritism inevitably crack. Others though see these second-tier PGA Tour events as a real opportunity – after all, a full 2-year exemption on the Tour, a trip to the Tournament of Champions and a decent haul of OWGR points is not to be sniffed at.

Winners here have either been younger players who’ve had a solid grounding in the Korn Ferry Tour or, in the case of Ryan Brehm, D.A. Points, Alex Cejka and George McNeill, experienced players who knew how to shoot low scores in warmer climes. Brehm wasn’t even a PGA Tour player in 2022, having played 4 early season Korn Ferry events prior to his 70/1 win here. He had made 4 cuts including 18th at the Abaco (Bahamas) and 9th at the Astara (Colombia) highlighting a player who had played well recently in similar geographical climes at a slightly lower level – remember this is an alternate event.

Points won here coming off a 39th at Pebble Beach based limited status PGA Tour outings. He hadn’t finished in the top 10 of a PGA Tour event for 3 and a half years. Veteran Alex Cejka in 2015 had never won on the PGA Tour and his immediate form read MC-67-34-MC. George McNeill won in 2012 and his form read MC-49-MC-33-49-19. I never told you this was going to be easy!

On the younger side, Nico Echavarria, our defending champion, had only played in 10 PGA Tour events within his rookie season, before he won this. His best finish from his 2 made cuts was 12th at the Sony Open – and his inbound form post Waialae Country Club was MC-MC-MC-MC. 125/1 in this strength of field highlights where Echavarria ranked in the thinking pre-event.

Martin Trainer in 2019, arrived off a 28th place finish at Pebble Beach. Prior to that he had finished MC-MDF in his limited 2019 outings. Tony Finau in 2016 had finished 43rd at Bay Hill the week before arriving here, which had been preceded by 4 straight Missed Cuts. But Finau in 2015 had defined himself with 4 top-10 finishes in his rookie season including 10th at the PGA Championship. With Hovland, Finau and arguably Grace, you could aregue they were the best player in the field, who actually went on to win.

Chesson Hadley in 2014 was similar to Finau having shown a level of pedigree: in his rookie season he’d already finished 5th at the Shriners Open in only his 4th PGA Tour start and was 10th at Pebble and 24th at PGA National in the immediate build-up to his 50/1 triumph here in Puerto Rico. 2013 saw web.com player Scott Brown coming off some great early season form in Central America to take the title here on a course where he’d finished 5th 12 months earlier.

Game-wise, I’m looking for a player who gets the ball out there 295 yards and who can take advantage of the birdie opportunities that are available on the short par-4s and the par-5s. A player who converts when aggressively Going for the Green, has always been an important part of the winners here in recent times.