Punchestown Festival timefigure analysis including Willie Mullins' El Fabiolo
Punchestown saves the day
With the best card last week domestically on the Flat disappointingly abandoned because of false patches of ground after a short spell of rain it’s just as well there was some good jumps action at Punchestown to get my teeth stuck into for this week’s column, though for those readers who prefer the Flat I’ll cover last weekend’s good action in France too. With soft or heavy still prevalent at many Flat tracks, it’s hard to believe the Guineas is only a few days away but hopefully, both the weather and underfoot conditions will have improved by then and not before time, too, after a chillier April than normal.
There was plenty of negative comment – what’s new? – doing the rounds on social media regarding last week’s Punchestown Festival, largely focussing on how uncompetitive the fare was or that the meeting needed culling by a day or two, but I found it an enjoyable feast even if some of the outcomes were rather predictable.
Highlights on the first of five days were provided by Energumene in the William Hill Champion Chase and Facile Vega in the KPMG Champion Novice Hurdle. The former ran a 168 timefigure (some way below his best) when getting the better of a revived Chacun Pour Soi, clearly happier back at well-run two miles for the first time since finishing second to Energumene in this race twelve months ago, but Facile Vega ran a career best 158 when making short work of his stable-companion Il Etait Temps who had finished three places behind him in the Supreme. Whatever you might have made of the shortcomings of the opposition – mostly provided by his stable-companions as in so many of the Grade 1s during the week – Facile Vega’s performance on the clock suggested the absent Marine Nationale would have had to take his form to a new level to have confirmed the form from the Supreme. What a race that would have been!
Wednesday’s feature, the Ladbrokes Champion Chase Gold Cup, was enlivened by the presence of the Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame, a rare Punchestown runner for Paul Nicholls who was crowned champion jumps trainer at Sandown later in the week, and though he jumped the last marginally in front he couldn’t quite hold off either Galopin Des Champs or Fastorslow with the latter coming home particularly strongly to cause something of a surprise.
Shock wins in this race aren’t entirely uncommon – Carlingford Lough and Follow The Plan spring to mind – but I’m not sure Fastorslow has been given quite the credit he deserves for all a winning 137 timefigure indicates the form has the potential to be a bit muddling. Sure, both the first two had hard races at Cheltenham, and the shorter distance on livelier ground than at Cheltenham appeared a negative for the Gold Cup winner, but the winner had a tough race at Cheltenham too when second only to Corach Rambler in the Ultima off a mark of 150 conceding the winner 4lb and the enormity of that task was made evident by the winner in the Grand National where he jumped the last still on the bridle.
The Ultima was Fastorslow’s first run over three miles so he’s still very much unexposed at the Gold Cup trip, and still only seven, I won’t be underestimating him at the highest level.
None of the other timefigures on the day were high. Gaelic Warrior had far too much speed for Albert Bartlett runner-up Affordale Fury in the Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle (timefigure just 118) while Albert Bartlett third Sandor Clegane made the most of an easier task than of late in the final of the Auction Hurdle series, scoring in a 131 timefigure.
Fab threat to Energumene
Pride of place on the timefigure front on Thursday went to El Fabiolo. A 168 timefigure - achieved easily too - in the Barberstown Castle is just 1lb shy of the figure he posted in the Arkle underlining that he’s a top-class novice well up to taking on Energumene next year, an opinion backed up by Arkle runner-up Jonbon’s defeat of Captain Guinness and Greaneteen in a 162 timefigure in the bet365 Celebration Chase at Sandown later in the week.
The other Grade 1 on the card, the Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle, went to Klassical Dream in a 138 timefigure. The race was a messy one as the timefigure suggests, and the form looks a little bit weak to my eye with Stayers’ Hurdle winner Sire du Berlais not seen to best advantage.
Champion Hurdle runner-up State Man had no Constitution Hill to contend with in the Paddy Power Champion Hurdle on Friday and didn’t need to be at his best to see off Vauban in a 140 timefigure. Impaire Et Passe returned the same figure in the Champion Novice Hurdle without impressing with the manner of his victory, leaving stable-companion Kilcruit to post the fastest timefigure of the day (159, a career best) dropped into a handicap for the first time and clearly rejuvenated by having a tongue strap left off. A winning time as well as a faster sectional from three out than Impervious managed later is testament to what he achieved, and he shouldn’t be underestimated back in open company next season.
The final day saw Echoes In Rain post a 146 when reversing Cheltenham Mares’ Hurdle form easily with Love Envoi. The quickening ground might not have been suitable for the latter but having Paul Townend back in the saddle and being kept closer to the principals than she had been at Cheltenham enabled Echoes In Rain to finally deliver the sort of imperious performance she’d been promising all season. Lossiemouth ran a much faster sectional from three out but a slower timefigure (125) when winning the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle. She’ll reportedly be trained for the Mares’ Hurdle next year but my money at this stage would be on Echoes In Rain in that particular match-up.
Iresine proves versatility
There has been a steady stream of good-class Flat action in France over the last couple of weeks and Sunday’s card at ParisLongchamp saw the reappearance of last season’s Prix du Jockey-Club and Eclipse winner Vadeni in the Group One Prix Ganay over an extended mile and a quarter. Beaten on his reappearance last season before taking a big step forward second time out, it was the same story this time around, but victory didn’t go to last year’s Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge as might have been expected instead but to six-year-old mare Iresine whose last win remarkably came over just short of two miles in the Prix Royal-Oak last autumn.
On the day, a recent run (both Iresine and the runner-up Simca Mille had run in the Prix d’Harcourt earlier in the month, when Iresine had run the last 600m three lengths faster but found the line coming too soon) looked a big advantage on very testing ground and very testing ground seems to suit Iresine very well as defeats in lesser Group races on faster surfaces at Vichy and Deauville last year seem to suggest.
All the same she deserves credit for powering through the last 600m 0.75 secs (around four lengths) faster than any of her rivals, and she’s clearly more versatile than an out-and-out stayer. Her finishing speed from 400m out of over 110% and a 5lb bigger upgrade from that point than any of her rivals (both bigger still if using her finishing time for the final 200m) was one of the higher ones on a day when all the finishing speeds were seemingly high which makes me suspicious the races were run over further than officially advertised.
Establishing how far the rail is out at French tracks isn’t easy and can make a big difference to finishing times and upgrades as I pointed out when commenting on the slow finish of last year’s Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Then, the finishing speed was ‘high’ if you assumed the race took place over the official distance of 2000m, but visual inspection confirmed the rail was well out (not untypically at Saint-Cloud in the spring and autumn) adding many metres to the official distance and the runners had crawled home. I’d credit Iresine with a bit of improvement for now and reassess her chance in the Arc nearer the day when ground conditions become known.
Later on the card, the Group 3 Prix Allez France went to German challenger India, a winner of several races by wide margins in her home country last year and likely to be seen to even better advantage back at a mile and a half judged by the way she surged late to hit the front close home. It was very disappointing to see La Parisienne, a filly who got several favourable mentions in this column last year (arguably would have won both the Prix de Diane and the Prix Vermeille last season with better luck in running) fail to fire for the second start in a row, but fifth-placed Baiykara ought to be able to win another Group race soon after running easily the fastest last 600m (quicker even than Iresine) but finding herself with too much to do. Big Call won the Group 3 Prix de Barbeville but was the beneficiary of a good ride, holding on narrowly despite four horses running the last 600m slower than four of his opponents.
Finally, something else to end with. One of the season-long betting opportunities I like to get my teeth into, not least because it provides interest right up until December 31st, is the leading first-season sire market which is settled on the highest number of individual winners in either Britain or Ireland by a first-season stallion.
The top three sires in the betting at the time the market went live were Ten Sovereigns, Blue Point and Inns Of Court and though all three are already off the mark it’s Blue Point who has made the fastest start with four winners on the board at the time of writing compared to two for Ten Sovereigns (who hasn’t had as many runners) and one for Inns Of Court. There are plenty of assisting pieces of information beyond the number of two-year-old representatives and likely distance preferences that can help provide an edge in a market like this (Derby winner Masar is unlikely to get many two-year-old winners, for example) and one of those is the returns from the Breeze Up Sales.
Those on Blue Point will be pleased to know he was responsible for four of the top ten highest-priced lots at the recent Craven Breeze Ups and two of the top twelve lots at the Doncaster Breeze Ups. In contrast, Inns Of Court had four of the eight lowest-priced lots at the Craven including the bottom-priced lot and he also had the cheapest seller at Doncaster. There’s a strong relationship as you might expect between Breeze Up sale price and racecourse performance, and I’d be more than a bit concerned if I’d backed Inns Of Court at 7/2 regardless of how many likely runners he might have.
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