Queen Mother Champion Chase ante-post tips: El Fabiolo and Jonbon ready to renew Cheltenham rivalry

Wednesday March 13 15:30 Cheltenham: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (2 miles)

This renewal is the big prize for the best two-mile chasers around and has produced some thrilling finishes over the years. The race is run at full tilt and the horse that jumps best usually prevails, and this is one of my favourite races at the Cheltenham Festival.

I will use the trends below to reduce the field and then analyse further and hopefully find the winner

Age

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 

Price

•   5/12 were favourites
• 11/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 

Last Run

•   6/12 won last time out before the Champion Chase 
•   9/12 ran within the last 53 days 
•   8/12 ran in the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) on their last run (4/8 won, 2 placed) 

• 11/12 had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
•   8/12 had a previous win at Cheltenham 

• 12/12 had at least 8 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs
• 10/12 had at least 6 wins over 15-17 furlongs 

• 11/12 had at least 7 previous chase runs
• 12/12 had at least 5 previous chase wins 

Rating

• 10/12 were rated 164 or higher

Grade 1 Wins 

• 12/12 had at least 1 Grade 1 win Grade 2 Wins
• 12/12 had at least 1 Grade 2 win 

Season Form

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs that season
• 11/12 had at least 1 win that season

El Fabiolo is the odds-on favourite from the all-conquering Willie Mullins stable and comes here with an unbeaten record over fences. He does have fewer chase runs in his record than most previous winners and that is the only negative I can find. 

El Fabiolo has won at Grade 1 level three times, including when beating Jonbon in the Arkle Novice Chase at last season’s Festival.

Jonbon has seven wins in eight chase starts, with his only defeat coming against El Fabiolo in the Arkle last year.

If Jonbon continues to jump left, as he did last year in the Arkle, it is hard to see him beating El Fabiolo, but if he can sort out that jumping flaw, then  it could well be a brilliant race between the two market leaders.

Dinoblue has not been out of the first two in eight chase starts, winning five of those, including the last four runs. That winning run included a Grade 1 chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating Gentleman De Mee by over seven lengths. 

I actually think Dinoblue could be in the mix here, but she is more likely to turn up in the Mares’ Chase for which she is a favourite.

Boothill is not in the same class as the front three in the betting and is also much better at going right-handed with all but one of his seven career wins coming on right-handed courses (Cheltenham is left handed.) 

Boothill is more likely to wait until after Cheltenham for a big prize going right handed.

This race could turn into the proverbial two-horse race between El Fabiolo and Jonbon and based on a form analysis I would expect El Fabiolo to win. 

Based purely on the trends analysis, Jonbon is the selection to win and don’t forget to look for non-runner money back (NRMB) offers from your bookmaker.