Race-by-race preview and tips for Grafton on Monday
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1720m)
Tricky middle distance affair for the maidens. Keen at the value aboard North Coast filly 14. Dominique third-up in her second prep. Made plenty of gerund in heavy going first-up before tackling tougher metro opposition at Eagle Farm 12 days ago when working home okay. Looking for further now, and winkers have been added.
Dangers: Progressive three-year-old 10. Veloce Venus is the immediate threat and will likely jump a clear-cut favorite. Chased hard on debut behind a handy winner, and the extra trip naturally suits, but threatens to go around under the odds. Both 2. Golden Garden deep into the prep; and 5. Kunderang placed in his last two; can fight for the minor money.
How to play it: Dominique to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 4 MAIDEN HCP (1190m)
Like improving 4. Systemic who went close second-up before failing to run home here a fortnight ago when backed into an odds-on favourite. Firmer track is a plus in what is now a weaker race.
Dangers: Watch the betting on Gold Coast-based 1. Frappes by Inference who debuts as a gelding in winkers having won the second of two trials. Included in exotics 3. Bowdarcie who drew the fence at his fourth start.
How to play it: Systemic to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 5 CLASS 1 HCP (1115m)
This shapes very nicely for still progressing three-year-old 2. Powder Man who peaks fourth-up. Charged home from the back for an impressive maiden win here two starts ago before again hitting the line from well off speed a fortnight ago. Draws to get a soft run on the inside, and as long as he sees clear air from the 350m, can be saved up for a superior final burst. Only missed a place once from six starts, and soft going is right up his alley. The one to beat.
Dangers: Local four-year old 1. Toy Boy Roy has plenty of early speed, and hasn’t finished further back than second in his last three. Likes to roll out in front and try and break them before the turn, but given he’s twice been run down over 1000m, must be at risk over this trip with a new and inexperienced jockey on board. At good odds, keep safe last start maiden winner here 6. Adelaide fever who also enjoys rain-affected ground, while honest mare 8. Grandellie third-up heads the rest.
How to play it: Powder Man to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 OPEN HCP (1190m)
Plenty of chances here for the open class sprinters headed by tough finishing five-year-old 7. Schiller Bay who peaks third-up after hitting the line OK in deeper metro races over the border. Has built a smart near 30 per cent win rate from just 15 starts, and looks well-weighted on 57.5kg in this line-up.
Dangers: Good class mare 3. Miss Super impressed when hitting the line late in a BM 85 here a fortnight ago, but shapes under the odds rising sharply in weight and being drawn off the track. Consistent mare 10. Lucky Sham should be in the finish, having placed in three of her last four. Keep safe 5. Bullinachinashop who is capable of finishing over the top, dropping down from a BM 75 metro field.
How to play it: Schiller Bay to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 7 BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1420m)
Widest and toughest race of the day to finish, with a stack of chances. A soft draw and back out in distance augur well for five-year-old 8. Don’t Forget Dad who has attacked the line in his last three, and bursting to win another race. Comes through a stronger BM 58 at Coffs two runs back when beaten under a length, and the sixth-placed runner from that race then won his next start.
Dangers: The winner of that said race, 10. Miss Laquetta naturally is a threat fourth-up from the inside barrier. Home track mare 3. Cassia Lane suitably gets out over a bit further after holding her own in city BM 65 company across the border. Weighted to her best, but has had seven runs at the track. Improving mare 6. Kalahari Heart swept home to win a weaker race 23 days ago, but looks poorly weighted in this field; while 11. Sportspak behind a last-start win can pump value into trifecta and first fours.
How to play it: Don’t Forget Dad each way
Odds and Evens: Evens
