Ranking the Top NBA Trade Targets Still on the Market
With most of the high-end NBA free agents locking down new deals quickly, our offseason attention turns to unfinished trade business.
Just as Kevin Durant's (first) trade request overshadowed the league's annual signing free-for-all last summer, Damian Lillard and James Harden are hijacking the news cycle this time around. Neither superstar has gone anywhere just yet, but that could change in a hurry.
In addition to those two, we've got several other big names on the market—or at least accompanied by enough reporting and speculation to warrant some attention. The out-of-nowhere blockbuster doesn't really exist anymore. If someone's getting traded, there's a good chance the preceding days and weeks featured some whispers of imminent action.
To keep things simple, we'll base these rankings of likely trade candidates on the value of their return packages. Nobody's getting a Rudy Gobert-level haul anymore, but a couple of these players could bring back a young star and a couple of first-round picks from the right team.
Things move quickly at this time of year, so we'd better get to it before half of this list is dealt.
Most of these names have been involved in trade speculation over the past year or so, but the chatter has died out on them this summer. They're not on the official list, but keep an eye on them anyway.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns has never truly been on the block, and the Wolves seem committed to giving the roster they rebuilt last summer a full opportunity to prove itself. A calf injury prevented KAT from jelling with Rudy Gobert in 2022-23. If things go sideways this year, expect the trade talk surrounding Towns and his Designated Veteran supermax deal to resume in earnest.
Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
The new CBA made it easier for the Celtics to retain Brown via extension by raising the allowed starting salary on a new deal. Brown and Boston have yet to make their continued partnership official, but a five-year, $295 million extension feels more like a "when" than an "if".
Dejounte Murray, Atlanta Hawks
Murray's case is different from Brown's. An extension for him could only start at $25.4 million per year, too low in light of the three-year, $140 million deal comparable starter Fred VanVleet just signed with the Houston Rockets. Because Murray seems much more likely than Brown to hit unrestricted free agency in 2024, the odds are higher that he'll be dealt.
Still, much like with Towns in Minnesota, one gets the feeling Atlanta wants a sense of what the current roster can do under Quin Snyder for a full year before it makes any major decisions on Murray.
Pascal Siakam's reported hesitancy to re-sign with the team that acquires him should cool the market.
On the other hand, Siakam is a two-time All-NBA honoree entering the last year of his deal for a Toronto Raptors team that should be considering a rebuild after losing Fred VanVleet. Fortunately for the Raps, who are probably kicking themselves for not dealing FVV at the 2023 trade deadline, interest in Siakam persists.
Michael Grange @michaelgrangeAn interesting player to monitor as the NBA transaction market heats up is Raptors Pascal Siakam. Keep hearing his name out there, per multiple sources. Atlanta still interested. Something to watch.
It's difficult to know what teams would be willing to surrender for Siakam's expiring $37.9 million salary—especially with the risk of him walking a year from now. Rentals like that don't tend to command huge returns. But the 29-year-old two-way star is coming off the highest scoring average of his career (24.2 points per game) and is younger than all but one of the other big names we'll feature on this list.
Siakam has to be worth at least one unprotected first-round pick and a decent young player, plus salary filler. And if he softens his stance on re-signing with his new team, the price could go up significantly.
James Harden is picking up his $35.6 million player option for 2023-24 and will work with the Philadelphia 76ers to find his third new team since leaving the Houston Rockets in 2020-21.
While Harden opting in is the practical decision for a player looking to be traded, it may have also been an indication of his diminished earning power in free agency. If he'd had big offers on the market, he could have declined his option, hit free agency and chosen his landing spot without the hassle of involving his current team.
Possible return packages are all over the map, making it tricky to discern what Harden's market value actually is. B/R's Dan Favale cooked up a handful of potential trades, all of which are plausible. But the returns range from multiple future first-rounders from the Miami Heat, to several young pieces from the New York Knicks, to straight-up salary filler from the L.A. Clippers.
Some of that has to do with a relative dearth of suitors for an aging, ball-dominant 10-time All-Star with a poor playoff track record ahead of his age-34 season. Harden comes with risks and baggage, and serious decline could arrive at any moment. But he's also a transformative offensive force who just led the league in assists per game while shooting 38.5 percent from deep.
Probably more valuable than Siakam in a vacuum, Harden still comes with a frighteningly wide array of return packages that make it too hard to move him up any higher.
Most of the trade chatter surrounding Paul George dates back a few weeks, when Marc Stein reported on his Substack:
The L.A. Clippers have left various rival teams with the impression through their Draft Week conversations that they are, at a minimum, attempting to gauge Paul George's trade value and, to hear some describe it, giving real consideration to the idea of disassembling the Kawhi Leonard/George tandem.
The Portland Trail Blazers and New York Knicks showed interest, but no deal came to fruition. Don't let that lull you into thinking George is off the market.
George could still be involved in a trade for James Harden if the Philadelphia 76ers aren't interested in a collection of middling expiring deals, and his contract status may spur movement regardless of the Sixers' involvement, per ESPN's Zach Lowe:
The biggest subplot in the NBA that not enough people are talking about is Paul George and Kawhi Leonard with the Clippers, being extension eligible. ... I just don't think, based on what I've heard, that if those guys walk in the door and ask for four-year max extensions, I don't think the Clippers are just giving them to them."
If the Clips aren't into the idea of an extension, the next logical step could be to explore a trade. Better that than losing George in free agency if he opts out in the summer of 2024.
Though durability issues persist (George has played 56 games or fewer in each of the last four seasons), the eight-time All-Star is one of the most complete two-way forwards in the sport. The worst critique that applies to George is that he's not quite a no-questions-asked alpha capable of leading a title-winner—something you could say about all but five or six players in the league.
Zach LaVine is five years younger than George and nearly six years James Harden's junior, and he's under contract through at least 2025-26 with a player option for the following season.
Unless teams are scared off by the price tag—LaVine will collect $178 million over the full life of his deal—he's the safest star bet of anyone we've covered so far. Even the durability issue favors LaVine over Harden and George, neither of whom came close to the 77 games he logged for the Chicago Bulls last season.
LaVine has averaged at least 23.0 points per game while shooting no worse than 37.4 percent from deep in each of the last five years. Kyrie Irving is the only other player to hit those marks every season since 2018-19, but LaVine has played 94 more total games than him in that span.
Yahoo! Sports' Jake Fischer reports the Bulls have "engaged several teams on LaVine trade opportunities" and that they believe a return package should exceed what the Washington Wizards got for Bradley Beal: four first-round swaps and six second-round picks.
Chicago may never move LaVine, and it's unclear whether the market will agree with its valuation of the 28-year-old. Because the length of his deal offers so much more team control to a suitor than George, Harden or Siakam's, LaVine is the first player on this list who should reasonably return multiple first-rounders and assets beyond salary filler.
It'll be fascinating to see whether the Portland Trail Blazers get a better return for Damian Lillard than the Bulls receive if they ever move LaVine. The notion of paying a 36-year-old Lillard $63 million in 2026-27 could be enough to nudge LaVine ahead of him on this list.
Consider this a hesitant bet that Portland will still earn the bigger haul, based mostly on the fact that the Blazers are in a strong enough position to turn down good offers, despite Lillard's preference to land with the Miami Heat limiting the bidding.
B/R's Chris Haynes reported the Blazers aren't interested in taking back Tyler Herro, a 23-year-old with Finals experience coming off two straight seasons scoring over 20.0 points per game. A player like that should be viewed as a potential cornerstone by most teams, and even the Heat believed in Herro enough to give him a $130 million extension less than a year ago. Yes, the Blazers are flush with guards, but their disinterest in Herro shows they believe they can be choosy.
That's a luxury most of the other teams with trade targets on this list can't afford.
Portland could easily haul in three or four first-rounders from the Brooklyn Nets for Lillard, and it remains possible the Heat will rope in a third team that allows them to give the Blazers only the assets they want.
Portland's apparent disregard for Lillard's desire to land in Miami is a wild card. The Blazers could open up bidding to drive up the price, but it's hard to know if teams outside of the Heat and Nets would be willing to give up major assets in exchange for a superstar who may not want to be there.
Lillard is coming off a career season that earned him a fifth All-NBA honor in the last six seasons, and he can singlehandedly transform an offense. He seems certain to secure the Blazers a premium return.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
