Raptors picks and props vs. Rockets Feb. 9: Bet on Scottie Barnes but fade Toronto's team total

Fred VanVleet's Houston Rockets are north of the border tonight to take on the Toronto Raptors.

The pregame narrative: VanVleet is out, which sullies the homecoming a bit. My focus is on the Raptors' side of things, as I'm fading their team point total but backing Scottie Barnes to stuff the stat sheet.

NBA oddsas of 10:30 a.m. ET on 02/09/2024.

Raptors picks vs. Rockets

Best Bet: Barnes over 33.5 PRA (-124)

Amid a relatively mundane trade deadline day, Toronto was a surprisingly active participant. But nothing about the Raptors' recent moves changes their identity moving forward.

This is Barnes' team.

And on most nights, Barnes should be expected to rise above 33.5 PRA. He's averaging 33.9 PRA on the season, after all, which has been enough to earn him all-star honours.

The former lottery pick cooled a bit in recent games, finishing below this mark in three of his past five. But he also put up 28 points, seven rebounds and four assists (39 PRA) in that stretch against these Rockets.

Also, Barnes has been a menace on home court this year. So after a six-game road trip, I expect him to come back strong at Scotiabank Arena. In 23 home games, Barnes has averaged 36.3 PRA (21.7 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists).

Key stat: Barnes has gone over 33.5 PRA in 13 of 23 home games (56.5%).

Quick pick

Raptors under 117.5 points (-113): Even if Barnes gets into an offensive groove, this line looks a bit lofty for the home team.

Toronto has averaged just 113.1 points over its past 15 games, falling below this total eight times. And the Raptors put up just 106 points against the Rockets last Friday.

Houston has an unsightly road record (5-18), but the defence hasn't been quite as bad. The Rockets' 117.4 defensive rating on the road is 18th in the NBA, and its 47.5% opponent FG rate in road games is 13th.