Raptors vs. Bulls odds, prediction: NBA play-in tournament picks

The underdog covered the spread in each of the first two games of this year’s NBA play-in tournament.

The Bulls are hoping to make it three straight ahead in Wednesday’s do-or-die contest against the Raptors.

The NBA playoff field is almost set. Bet the last of the Play-In games with FanDuel Sportsbook to get in on the action!

Both teams stumbled their way into the short end of the play-in, as the winner will still need to beat the Heat on Friday while the loser heads home.

Can the Raptors hold serve in this one as modest home favorites?

Here’s how we’re betting Wednesday’s contest, which tips off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Raptors vs. Bulls odds

• Raptors -5.5 (-105), moneyline -225
• Bulls +5.5 (-115), moneyline +180
• O/U 213.5 (over -115)

Raptors vs. Bulls prediction and analysis

(7 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Entering this season, the Raptors were everyone’s favorite sleeper pick after winning 48 games a year ago, while the Bulls were seemingly doomed for regression after a 46-win campaign of their own.

Six months later, these two teams are separated by just one game ahead. And their resumes are far closer than this line suggests.

These teams were separated by just one point in their three meetings this season, with Chicago scoring a 14-point win in November but losing the other two games by a combined 15 points.

They also posted nearly identical net ratings throughout the season, as the Raptors (+1.5) ranked 12th while the Bulls (+1.3) checked in at 13th.

In fact, Chicago has clearly been the better team since the All-Star break, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions – ranking third behind only 2022 finalists Boston (+7.9) and Golden State (+5.8) – across a 14-9 stretch that helped turn this team’s season around.

So, that begs the question: why not take the points?

The best argument, really, is locale.

The Raptors have been one of the NBA’s best bets at home, boasting the league’s second-best ATS record (25-15-1) with a decent net rating (+4.5) in friendly confines.

Meanwhile, the Bulls own a negative net rating (-0.3) on the road – still the seventh-best mark in basketball but a key factor for this line, which is awfully close to the sum of those two net ratings.

Again, that doesn’t tell the whole story with Chicago, which has quietly won eight of its last 10 road games (6-3-1 ATS) with a +8.0 net rating dating back to a six-point loss in Toronto in late February.

Translation: the Bulls are red hot, and it hasn’t mattered where they’ve played.

The Raptors have been sizzling at home, too, winning 11 of their last 12 outright at Scotiabank Arena.

Still, I’m at least somewhat concerned with Toronto’s shaky offense down the stretch, especially against a Chicago defense that has led the league in efficiency (110.1) since the All-Star break.

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And, of course, there’s the subplot of DeMar DeRozan returning to Toronto with a chance to eliminate his former team on its home court.

The three-time All-NBA star has averaged 21.5 points in 13 contests against the Raptors, and he’s posted more rebounds (5.8) and assists (6.2) with a higher field-goal percentage (53.2%) than he has against any other team.

DeRozan is 7-6 in those 13 “revenge” games, though he’s struggled to score against his former team this season.

If he can turn that around on Wednesday, his current team will be well-positioned to keep it close and even pull off the outright upset.