Rays-Marlins prediction, odds, pick, how to watch
The Tampa Bay Rays are traveling down the state of Florida to take on the Miami Marlins for the start of a quick two game series. Below we will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Rays-Marlins prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
The Rays are sitting just 2.5 games back in the AL Central division. They are chasing the Orioles for the top seed in the AL, however, they will be almost guaranteed to host a wild card series if they do not get the top seed. The Rays have won eight of their last 10 games, so they have been playing some good baseball lately. Tampa Bay has won five straight series this month. This includes taking two of three from the New York Yankees over the weekend. Tampa Bay's best hitter for average, Yandy Diaz, was sidelined on Sunday with a forearm injury, and it is unclear whether or not he will play in this game. However, the rest of their lineup is healthy and ready to go.
The Marlins are in third place in the NL East division with a record of 66-65. They have no chance at catching the Atlanta Braves for the NL East crown, but they can still sneak into a wild card spot. The Arizona Diamondbacks currently hold that last wild card spot, but the Marlins are just 2.5 games back. A couple wins against the Rays would go a long way for Miami. However, they have not been playing well lately. Miami has lost seven of their last 10 games, and they are just 9-15 in the month of August. Over the weekend, the Marlins hosted the Washington Nationals and lost two of three. They have lost four straight series as they look to turn it around in this game.
Aaron Civale and Sandy Alcantara will get the ball in the series opener.
Here are the Rays-Marlins MLB odds,
MLB Odds: Rays-Marlins Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+164)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-200)
Over: 7.5 (-108)
Under: 7.5 (-112)
How To Watch Rays vs. Marlins
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TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Florida
Stream: MLB TV subscription
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
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Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
Civale has not been as dominant with the Rays as he was with the Cleveland Guardians, but his numbers are still there. With the Rays, Civale has been allowing some hits, but he has given up just eight earned runs in 20 1/3 innings. In those innings, Civale has struck out 20, walked two, and allowed just one home run. Tampa Bay is 3-1 when he pitches, as well. The Marlins, in August, are bottom-10 in batting average, OPS, and runs scored. The Marlins have not been able to get much going this month, so Civale has a pretty good matchup. If he can continue to be really good this season, the Rays will cover the spread.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Alcantara has been having a very different season than his Cy Young season last year, but he has still been good. Lately, Alcantara has been having a lot of success. He has gone at least six innings in 13 of his last 15 starts, including nine straight. In August, Alcantara has been good, as well. He is coming off a rocky outing against the San Diego Padres, but he still has a 3.03 ERA in August. Alcantara also has 31 strikeouts to just seven walks, 29 hits allowed, and a very high ground ball rate in August. If he can keep it up, the Marlins will cover the spread.
Alcantara is much better when pitching at home this season. His ERA is a whole run better, opponents hit 40 points worse off him in Miami, and just four of his 21 home runs allowed have come at Loan Depot Park. This success is very positive heading into this game with Tampa Bay. Another thing to note is his last outing against the Rays. Alcantara threw a complete game, allowing just one run on five hits while striking out seven in the Marlins' 7-1 win. That outing, mixed with his home success should give him a lot of confidence heading into this game.
Final Rays-Marlins Prediction & Pick
This should be a close game. The Marlins are not playing well, the Rays are playing well. Looking at the pitching matchup, Civale and Alcantara are both capable of having very good starts. With that said, I think this game will be close. I am going to take the Marlins to cover the spread as the underdogs.
Final Rays-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-200), Over 7.5 (-108)
