Rays-Twins prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, September 12

After slugging their way to a 7-4 win in Monday’s series opener, the Tampa Bay Rays (88-56) look to make it four wins in a row as they once again take on the Minnesota Twins (75-68) in a potential ALDS preview. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Zack Littell (3-5, 4.29 ERA) will go for the Rays, while the Twins hope erstwhile ace Joe Ryan (10-9, 4.21) can get himself back on track.

Tampa Bay remains hot on the Orioles trail in the AL East, taking three of four from the Mariners over the weekend to sit just three back (four in the loss column) of Baltimore. Minnesota, meanwhile, appears to have finally put Cleveland to bed for good in the AL Central, though that says more about the state of that division than anything else.

The Twins enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Rays at +110. The run total is set at 8.

Rays-Twins picks: Tuesday, September 12

Injury report

Rays

Day to day: 3B Isaac Paredes (hand)
Out: OF Manuel Margot (right elbow loose bodies), RP Jason Adam (left oblique strain)

Twins

Out: INF Jorge Polanco (bereavement), 1B Joey Gallo (foot), DH Byron Buxton (knee), OF Michael Taylor (hamstring), 3B Jose Miranda (shoulder), INF/OF Nick Gordon (leg)

Starting pitchers

Zack Littell vs. Joe Ryan

Littell’s done a serviceable job since a rash of injuries forced him from the bullpen into Tampa’s rotation last month, and he’s coming off easily the best start of that stretch. The righty fired eight innings of one-run ball against Seattle, giving up just five hits while striking out four. As that stat line suggests, he’s never going to rack up a ton of Ks, but he has elite command (99th-percentile walk rate) and relies on Tampa’s elite defense behind him to turn balls in play into outs.

Ryan looked like a Cy Young dark horse over the first couple months of this season, but things have fallen apart a bit in the second half. The righty posted an ugly 8.63 ERA across seven starts from June 27 to August 2 before finally being shut down with what the Twins called a groin injury. He’s been slightly better since returning at the end of last month, with just four runs allowed and 17 punchouts over 15 innings across his last three starts. Ryan’s biggest bugaboo has been the home run ball: He’s allowed a whopping 19 of them over his last 10 outings.

Over/Under pick

This number is just a bit too low for my taste, especially after seeing 11 runs cross the plate in Monday’s opener. Littell is coming off an excellent start, but he’d also allowed four earned runs in each of his three prior outings, and that sort of line feels far closer to his actual talent level — he’s fine enough to get you through a few innings, but he’s hardly got dominant stuff. Ryan does, or at least he can when he’s on, but his home-run problem could be exploited by a Rays squad that’s hit the fourth most in baseball.

Pick: Over 8

Moneyline pick

Backing Ryan right now always makes me squirrelly, but he’s looked far better of late, with his four-seamer returning to its spring dominance. If that pitch shows up again, he gives Minnesota the far more reliable option on the mound, and the Twins have begun to wake up at the plate of late.