Rays vs. Cubs predictions, odds, picks: Best bet for Memorial Day game (May 29)

The Rays and Cubbies begin a three-game set at Wrigley, so we have Rays vs. Cubs predictions, odds and picks to give out.

Memorial Day baseball at Wrigley is always special, and it’s also special to welcome the Rays to town. Tampa boasts the best team in baseball.

But I’m banking on a pitcher’s duel at Wrigley in this game.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Rays (-122) vs. Cubs (+104)

Spread: Rays -1.5 (+134) vs. Cubs +1.5 (-162)

Total: Over 8 (-108) | Under 8 (-112)

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(2:20 p.m. ET, Marquee)

Rays starting pitcher Taj Bradley is among the best young pitchers in the leauge. He works off two plus-fastballs (a four-seam and cutter) and throws a curveball and changeup to round out his arsenal, all with plus control.

So far, Bradley’s MLB career has been unlucky. He’s worked to a 4.44 ERA but only because of an uber-high .345 BABIP. Bradley’s expected ERA is 3.12, and his expected FIP is 2.82, so expect positive regression in the future.

And this is a great matchup for Bradley to get back on track. The Cubs are a much deadlier lineup against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones, and they’ve put together a lackluster .692 OPS against righties in May.

The Cubs stack a lot of righties in their lineup, so it makes sense.

Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman will toe the mound for the Cubs. He has a much more difficult matchup with the Rays league-leading offense, but I think he’s up for the challenge given his 60% ground-ball rate and 2.95 ERA.

I generally look toward the under when there’s a starting pitching matchup like this.

The worry is these two bullpens, as both units are stretched out and have been underwhelming this month.

But two other factors are offsetting that.

First, these are two solid fielding teams. The Cubs and Rays grade out as above-average defenses by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Second, Wrigley Field should be a pitcher’s park today. Betting on the under at Wrigley Field whenever the wind blows anywhere by out has been very profitable since 2005 (15.7% ROI).

The Action Network’s PRO model projects this total closer to 7.2 than 8, so there’s value in the current total available at FanDuel Sportsbook. And I feel good banking on a low-scoring game given the pitching matchup and weather.

Under 8 (-112) | Play to 7.5 (+100)