Rays vs Twins Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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13 September 2023

Rays vs Twins Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays will meet in a rubber match Wednesday, with Dallas Keuchel taking the hump for the home side. As for the Rays, they'll be sending rookie Taj Bradley to the mound — and our MLB picks expect him to get burnt.

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The rubber game of a three-game series is set for this afternoon when the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins take the field in Minneapolis.

The MLB odds for today's season finale are on the board, and I've found the best prices available for this important matchup. Tampa Bay righty Taj Bradley is the Rays probable starter while Minnesota expects lefty Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 4.78) to take the mound.

Both teams aren't throwing out highly prolific pitchers, but I'm counting on Minny's bats today. Find out why in my free MLB picks for the Rays vs. Twins for Wednesday, September 13.

Rays vs Twins odds

Rays vs Twins predictions

The Minnesota Twins are 5-1 when lefty Dallas Keuchel takes the hill, and my best bet is for Minnesota and Keuchel to beat the Tampa Bay Rays today. Let me explain.

Keuchel hasn't pitched poorly since being signed with the Twins in July. He's coming off a solid five-inning, three-hit victory at home against the New York Mets this past Friday. He fanned six and walked a pair but didn't serve up any home runs, and the Twins won 5-2.

It's not going to be easy for Keuchel this afternoon because Tampa Bay has one of the best offenses in baseball, at least on paper. However, it has a more challenging time with lefties, as its sixth-best wRC+ (113) tells us. The strikeouts rise, the walks go down, and the Rays' lumber doesn't have the same sting against lefties as they do against righthanded pitching.

Minnesota backs Keuchel with nearly 5.5 runs of support per start, and this afternoon, the Twinkies face a rookie pitcher issuing 4.5 free passes per nine frames on the bump.

Rays righty Taj Bradley has made a pair of starts since returning to the show. He's struck out a dozen over the 11 1/3 innings since his return, walked seven, and served up three bombs in his last start against Seattle. The Rays did win both starts since his return but are 4-6 this season away from Tropicana Field when the young rookie takes the bump.

The Twins have the highest walk rate in baseball against righties, but they also have the highest strikeout rate. They have the fourth-highest ISO and create the third-most runs against righties, and the Minnesota bats are a terrible matchup for Bradley at Target Field today.

Finally, Target Field has been good to the Twins. They are 43-31 on the season, facing a rookie with a high walk rate and known to serve up the long ball. Tampa Bay also has a winning away record, but not when Bradley takes the hill. It won't be pretty, but let's back Keuchel and the Twins today.

My best bet: Twins moneyline (+107 at BetRivers)

Rays vs Twins same-game parlay

I've already discussed the Twins' moneyline play and why I am backing the Twins bats today against Bradley.

The total is nine runs, which sits on a key number, and choosing the Under with Bradley and Keuchel on the hill may not seem like the right play on the surface, but the numbers tell us the Under is 4-1 over their past five meetings.

The numbers also tell us Tampa Bay is 32-36-3 to the Under as the away team. Meanwhile, the Twins are 36-35-3 to the Over at Target Field but 3-7 to the Under as the underdog, and I have enough statistical support to justify playing Under nine runs.

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Rays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I had no trouble backing Keuchel and the Twins over Bradley and the Rays. Keuchel is 4-1 as a starter for Minnesota, and they are 5-1 when he takes the mound.

The Rays have scored 15 runs over their last five away games and average 5.41 runs per game as the away team. Minnesota has scored 20 runs during the first five games of its six-game homestand and averaged 4.77 runs at Target Field this season.

The Rays bullpen has been the best in baseball over the past 30 days. They've allowed the fewest earned runs (24) with the most saves (11). They've also blown the second-most saves (7) and ranks third in holds (19).

Over the past month, the Twins bullpen has been steady with the seventh-most earned runs allowed (46) in the American League. They are seventh in earned runs (46) and fifth in holds (16) but have blown the fourth most saves (5) over the past 30 days.

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Trend to know

The Twins are 4-0 in their last four when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Twins

Rays vs Twins game info

Starting pitchers

Taj Bradley (5-7, 5.44 ERA): Bradley was called up from AAA in early September after a terrible August stretch. The rookie righty allowed three home runs and four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings in the Rays 7-4 home victory against Seattle. Bradley has a 3.97 ERA with a dozen strikeouts over his 11 1/3 frames since the call-up.

Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 4.78 ERA): Keuchel signed with the Twins in late July, and the Twins are 5-1 when he takes the mound. The veteran southpaw scattered three hits with two earned runs over five innings in his last start against the New York Mets. Keuchel has 14 strikeouts and nine walks over 26 1/3 frames with Minnesota.