Real Madrid vs. Man City Picks, Predictions & Odds

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07 May 2023

Real Madrid vs. Man City Picks, Predictions & Odds

Manchester City had their tickets booked for the Champions League final last year before giving up two injury-time goals to Real’s Rodrygo to send the semifinal second leg to extra time, ultimately leading to their exit. Can Pep Guardiola exact revenge 12 months later? Check out our Real Madrid-Man City picks based on the best Champions League odds.

The two favorites for this season’s UEFA Champions League title square off on Tuesday in the first leg of the semifinals.

Real and City will meet for the ninth time in European competition during the first leg, with both sides winning three of the previous eight. City have now won three of the last four meetings. But they lost the most recent encounter, dropping that 3-1 match at the Santiago Bernabéu during last season’s semifinal second leg.

Here is our best Real Madrid-Man City Champions League semifinal first-leg pick (odds via PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Real Madrid vs. Man City pick

Over 2.5 goals (-140 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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There’s plenty to be confident about with this play. The two clubs have scored a combined 17 goals scored during the last four Champions League meetings, with Real notching eight and City nine for an average of 4.3 per match. While Manchester City registered 31 shots on target compared to Real Madrid’s 17, the Spanish side netted with 47% of their attempts on target, compared to 29% for City.

Even though Real Madrid are on a run of three consecutive clean sheets in the competition, they boast the second-worst expected goals against (12.5) of all the semifinalists, and City has produced the highest xG (22.2) of any side left in the competition.

Both sides are capable of scoring plenty. Vinicius Junior has either scored or assisted on a goal in each of his last 10 starts for Real Madrid in the Champions League (seven goals and five assists). And you may have heard of the Norwegian on City. Erling Haaland has recorded 35 goals in 27 appearances during the competition, with his minutes per goal ratio (58) the best of any player in Champions League history. Haaland has scored twice as many goals (12) as Vinicius in this season’s tournament.

Real’s leaky defense will be a concern for head coach Carlo Ancelotti. Despite winning the Copa del Rey over the weekend, they haven’t managed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four games, giving up nine goals during that period. There will be opportunities for Kevin De Bruyne to find Haaland and company in attack.

Real Madrid are the defending European champions and look to be well out of the La Liga title race, so the Champions League is their focus. They’ll attack City despite the threat of Guardiola’s men punishing them on the counter. It’s going to be open, which is why I believe this is the best play available in this matchup. We might even be toasting our success at halftime.

Real Madrid vs. Man City best odds

PointsBet (-140)

If you’re betting $10, there’s not much swing in the odds at play here. But the books also clearly think there will goals.

It’s hard to see these two offensively skilled teams failing to cash the Over. Real have been exposed at the back recently, and City look unstoppable. If this was at the Etihad Stadium, I’d be taking City as the moneyline play. They’re favorites on the road here, but I can't pick a side with conviction because owning home-field advantage is so important at this stage of the tournament.

If you're looking for a goalscorer play, Haaland is listed at -115 through PointsBet. The same book is posting Vinicius as +300 for that market.