Red Sox have long odds to win AL East, almost as long as the Orioles

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Oddsmakers aren’t counting on there being a Red Sox October to conclude the 2023 MLB season. In fact, they aren’t all that big on Boston’s chances in April, May, August, or any month during the campaign for that matter.

The opening odds for the outcome of the American League East are out at FanDuel Sportsbook and the Boston Red Sox are the fourth betting choice in the five-team division. Not only that, the BoSox are a distant fourth.

The Red Sox are set at a betting line of +2000. The good news about those odds for Red Sox fans is that if you were to bet $10 and Boston did win the AL East, you’d be banking a payout of $210. On the other hand, those odds also mean that the people who get paid to assess such things are pretty much certain that it’s going to be a long summer for the faithful at Fenway Park.

Only the perennial sad-sack Baltimore Orioles (+2500) are given longer odds to win the division than Boston. By contrast, the New York Yankees (+110), Toronto Blue Jays (+220) and Tampa Bay Rays (+300) are all being assigned very short betting lines to capture the AL East flag.

Certainly, the departure of designated hitter/shortstop Xander Bogaerts, the heart and soul of the Boston batting order and of the team as a whole, is playing a significant role in these long odds being assigned to the Red Sox. Bogaerts signed a long-term deal as a free agent with the San Diego Padres.

Last season, Bogaerts batted .307 for Boston. It was the third time in four seasons he’d hit at least .300. Bogaerts also fashioned a .377 on-base percentage and .456 slugging percentage for an OPS of .833. You just don’t easily replace those kinds of numbers in a team’s lineup.

In 2022, Bogaerts was an an AL all-star, won a Silver Slugger Award and finished ninth in the MVP voting. To suggest he’ll be missed in Boston would be like saying that the Green Monster looms large over left field at Fenway Park.

Boston will also be starting the season without second baseman Trevor Story. He’s out following offseason elbow surgery.

While finishing last in the AL East in 2022 with a 78-84 record, any way you opted to add it up, the numbers came out horribly for the Red Sox pitching staff.

Boston was 14th in the 15-team AL with a team ERA of 4.53. The Red Sox were 12th in FIP (4.17) and 14th in WHIP (1.35) and hits allowed per nine innings (8.9). Boston hurlers served up 1.2 homers per nine innings, tied for 12th in the league. BoSox pitchers surrendered 185 homers, 13th overall in the AL.

Boston will be counting on a trio of oft-injured pitchers to steady this wobbly rotation. Once the ace of the staff, a combination of Tommy John surgery, broken finger and broken wrist have limited lefty Chris Sale to 48.3 innings over the past three seasons.

Southpaw James Paxton is also seeking to bounce back from Tommy John surgery. Righty Corey Kluber has missed at least two months in three of the past four seasons. He did go the entire distance for the Rays last season, though, and his 3.0% walk ratio was the best of any big-league pitcher.

To help boost a bullpen that was second-last in the AL with an ERA of 4.59, three-time all-star closer Kenley Jansen was signed as a free agent.

Beyond the division odds, there’s plenty of other opportunities for Red Sox fans to be betting in regards to their favorite baseball team.

Oddly enough, even though Boston is given better odds than Baltimore of winning the AL East, at Caesars Sportsbook, it’s the Orioles that oddsmakers like with the best chance of winning the World Series among the two clubs. Boston is set as the co-22nd betting choice in this market along with the Chicago Cubs at +7500. But you can access a +6600 betting line on the Orioles.

FanDuel’s oddsmakers aren’t seeing it that way, though. They’ve set Boston as the 21st betting choice in their World Series future book at odds of +6000. Baltimore is given a betting line of +10000 by this book.

The Red Sox are the 11th choice to win the ALCS at odds of +3000. Boston is given +310 odds of making the playoffs this season. As far as win totals, the Red Sox are set with 78.5 as their number. Bet the over and get a line of -118. A wager on the under is worth -104 odds.

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