Red Sox-Orioles prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 29

The Boston Red Sox (76-83) and Baltimore Orioles (100-59) matchup for the final weekend series of the regular season. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Boston will start Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.25 ERA), while Boston counters with the southpaw John Means (1-1, 2.60).

The Orioles are the -118 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Red Sox are the narrow -102 underdogs, and the run total is set at eight.

Red Sox-Orioles picks: Friday, September 29

Injury report

Red Sox

Out: RP Chris Martin (infection), INF Luis Urias (calf), 1B Triston Casas (shoulder)

Orioles

Out: RP Felix Bautista (elbow)

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta vs. John Means

This will be Pivetta’s 38th appearance and 16th start of the season. He is coming off his best start of the month against the Chicago White Sox. Pivetta pitched seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits while striking out seven and walking one. Despite being in the same division, this will be his first outing against Baltimore this season.

Means will make his fourth appearance of the year after returning from Tommy John rehab in mid-September. He last pitched against the Cleveland Guardians. Means allowed just one earned run on a solo home run in the seventh inning. It was the only hit he gave up, and he struck out four and walked one to earn his first win of the season.

Over/Under pick

The Orioles picked up the 2-0 win on Thursday. They have scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five games. Boston has been shut out in consecutive games. It’s a risk, but I’m taking the under, especially at pitcher-friendly Camden Yards and with Baltimore likely running out a weaker lineup after clinching the AL East last night.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

Baltimore has won five games in a row and is coming off a division-clinching 100th win of the season on Thursday. Conversely, Boston has lost five games in a row and is playing for pride to get their prospects some extra experience. The Orioles have the momentum in this one and should pick up the win barring Means melting down on the mound.