Red Sox vs. Rays odds, prediction: MLB picks Monday, Apr. 10
We have Red Sox vs. Rays odds and predictions as Boston and Tampa begin a four-game set at Tropicana Field on Monday.
The Rays are the first MLB team since 2003 to start a season 9-0.
More impressive, they’ve covered the run line in every game and are the first team since 1884 with a run differential better than +50 over their first nine games.
That’s a great start to the season.
However, is that type of success sustainable?
I argue no.
Red Sox vs. Rays odds
Moneyline: Red Sox (+130) vs. Rays (-155)
Spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-150) vs. Rays -1.5 (+126)
Total: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108)
Red Sox vs. Rays prediction
(6:40 p.m. ET.)
At some point, the Rays will lose a baseball game.
And this insane run to start the season has just made the Rays far too overvalued.
Tampa’s complete dominance has overshadowed their easy schedule.
The Rays’ first three series came against the lowly Athletics, Nationals and Tigers.
Per Sean Zerillo of The Action Network, the average consensus ML price for the Rays across those nine games was -250.
Of course, the Rays probably shouldn’t have won all nine games in a row, as baseball is too variable, but they were still considerable favorites in each game.
Because of the streak, the Rays are now mispriced against better competition.
The Action Network’s PRO model projects the Rays as -120 ML favorites against the Red Sox on Monday, so most books incorrectly price them above -150.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are playing better than their +130 ML price indicates.
Boston just swept Detroit at Comerica Park by a combined score of 24-9.
Boston’s pitching needs work – and I’m not high on Monday’s starting pitcher, Nick Pivetta – but their offense is cooking.
The Red Sox currently have the third-highest OPS (.814) and fourth-highest wRC+ (120) in MLB, and only the Rays are averaging more runs per game.
Unfortunately, Adam Duvall is out with a wrist injury, but he isn’t the only Boston batter smashing the ball.
Rafael Devers has four home runs and a 1.084 OPS, Alex Verdugo is batting .342, and Masataka Yoshida has an above-average OPS+.
The Red Sox are not as good as the Rays, especially from a pitching and fielding perspective – I’d give the pitching and defense advantage to Jalen Beeks and the Rays across all nine innings.
However, the Red Sox have the offense to beat any team in MLB on any given night, and the Rays are overvalued on this night.
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Ultimately, I’m selling high on Tampa and buying into Boston’s upside.
The Red Sox can score double-digit runs against anyone and the Rays are due for some negative regression against an elite MLB offense.
Red Sox vs. Rays pick
Boston Red Sox ML (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook
